The model missed the final outcome (Rushall Olympic win 3–2).
The model had projected Kettering Town at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Kettering Town Rushall Olympic ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushall Olympic | 31.9% | 35.3% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Kettering Town | 38.5% | 40.8% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Rushall Olympic win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kettering Town by 5.7 percentage points (32.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rushall Olympic 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Kettering Town 38.5%
- xG · Rushall Olympic 1.23 — Kettering Town 1.37
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rushall Olympic 2.57 · Draw 3.79 · Kettering Town 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · Rushall Olympic 35.3% · Draw 23.9% · Kettering Town 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Rushall Olympic 2.57 · Draw 3.79 · Kettering Town 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · Rushall Olympic 35.3% · Draw 23.9% · Kettering Town 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rushall Olympic win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
71/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rushall Olympic win · Rushall Olympic 3–2 Kettering Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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]
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"ev_available": true,
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-11.9%"
},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1165,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0347,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kettering Town",
"sort_key": 1791.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"alert_team": "Kettering Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.66,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"market_team": "Kettering Town",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Kettering Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kettering Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kettering Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kettering Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kettering Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1596887 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1165,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.66,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"steam_team": "Kettering Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kettering Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kettering Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kettering Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kettering Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1596887 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1165,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rushall Olympic 1.23 xG vs Kettering Town 1.37 \u2192 Kettering Town 38.5%",
"Market: Kettering Town ~40.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Kettering Town odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kettering Town, but the market has moved away from Kettering Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.32,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Rushall Olympic",
"market_prob": 35.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Kettering Town",
"market_prob": 40.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.91,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.91,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.91,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Kettering Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kettering Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rushall Olympic 1.23 xG vs Kettering Town 1.37 \u2192 Kettering Town 38.5%",
"Market: Kettering Town ~40.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Kettering Town odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kettering Town, but the market has moved away from Kettering Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.66,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Kettering Town odds lengthened \u2191 +16.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Kettering Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Kettering Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Kettering Town has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Kettering Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Kettering Town has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Kettering Town."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.7,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.32,
"edge_pp": -3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rushall Olympic",
"market_prob_pct": 35.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.66,
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.33,
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kettering Town",
"market_prob_pct": 40.82,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Kettering Town \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kettering Town (40.8%).",
"However, Kettering Town has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.1%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kettering Town, Market \u2192 Kettering Town, while Kettering Town odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.39,
"closing_odds": 3.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.39,
"entry_odds": 3.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Kettering Town together (16.1% drift, score 70) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.21",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Kettering Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.22,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,8.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Kettering Town odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Kettering Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Kettering Town odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Market moved away from Kettering Town while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kettering Town",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Kettering Town",
"steam_score": 70,
"steam_team_name": "Kettering Town",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kettering-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kettering Town",
"away_team_id": 8654,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8654.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kettering Town",
"away_team_public_id": "48hB7Cs3dcsdRk",
"away_team_slug": "kettering-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1596887,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Rushall Olympic",
"home_team_id": 7743,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7743.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rushall Olympic",
"home_team_public_id": "2jTj7s9mgo3j9h",
"home_team_slug": "rushall-olympic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rushall-olympic",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Tengah Selatan",
"league_id": 931,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/931.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Tengah Selatan",
"league_public_id": "315nCh9kwH6D1R",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5UsiH93XDFsCb2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4341,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4082,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.3526
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.398
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0347,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4082,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.3526
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2547
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4276,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.3526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4082,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.3526
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3385
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.1789,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2156,
"alpha_yes": 0.2372,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0291,
"edge_yes": -0.0291,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0014,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0839,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.107,
"implied_no": 0.4269,
"implied_yes": 0.5731,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0839,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4342
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5652
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4342,
"p_final_yes": 0.5652,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0557,
"edge_under": 0.0557,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5377,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4623,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1213,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kettering Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kettering Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kettering Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kettering Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1596887 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kettering Town, but the model still strongly favours Kettering Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1165,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Kettering Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0839,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4342
},
"p_final": 0.4342,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0839,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5652
}
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0014,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0557,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4623,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1596887,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kettering Town",
"home": "Rushall Olympic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4623,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1165,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1596887,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T18:44:12.852840+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Rushall Olympic & Kettering Town!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Tengah Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Kettering Town | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Leiston | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Stourbridge | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Peterborough Sports | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Bishop's Stortford | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Redditch United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Worcester City | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Banbury United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Leamington | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 7 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 7 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 4 | Leiston | 7 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Needham Market | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Peterborough Sports | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Kettering Town | 7 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 11 | Leighton Town | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Leamington | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Bishop's Stortford | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Hitchin Town | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 7 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 7 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 |
