AI correctly predicted the AL Nasr SC win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 AL Nasr SC AL Nasr SC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Nasr SC | 39.0% | 32.6% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 34.5% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| El Seka El Hadid | 31.5% | 32.9% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates AL Nasr SC's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.6%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (AL Nasr SC win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on AL Nasr SC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced AL Nasr SC more conservatively (32.6% vs model 39.0%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (AL Nasr SC win 3–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · El Seka El Hadid 31.5%
- xG · AL Nasr SC 1.38 — El Seka El Hadid 1.22
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 2.68 · Draw 2.53 · El Seka El Hadid 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 32.6% · Draw 34.5% · El Seka El Hadid 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 2.68 · Draw 2.53 · El Seka El Hadid 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 32.6% · Draw 34.5% · El Seka El Hadid 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result AL Nasr SC win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
AL Nasr SC win · AL Nasr SC 3–1 El Seka El Hadid
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0567,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
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"text": "-5.7%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.0444,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"sort_key": 1785.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"alert_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.36,
"hero_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "AL Nasr SC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AL Nasr SC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AL Nasr SC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AL Nasr SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3731343283582089,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0444,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.36,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"steam_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AL Nasr SC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AL Nasr SC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AL Nasr SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3731343283582089,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0444,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AL Nasr SC 1.38 xG vs El Seka El Hadid 1.22 \u2192 AL Nasr SC 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~32.6% implied",
"Market Steam: El Seka El Hadid \u2193 -4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours AL Nasr SC, but sharp money moved toward El Seka El Hadid.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob": 32.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.37,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "El Seka El Hadid",
"market_prob": 32.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.67,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.67,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.41,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.41,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.61,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates AL Nasr SC\u0027s win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.6%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AL Nasr SC 1.38 xG vs El Seka El Hadid 1.22 \u2192 AL Nasr SC 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~32.6% implied",
"Market Steam: El Seka El Hadid \u2193 -4.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours AL Nasr SC, but sharp money moved toward El Seka El Hadid.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.36,
"hero_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "El Seka El Hadid odds shortened \u2193 -4.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on El Seka El Hadid, with odds shortening by 4.6%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on AL Nasr SC.",
"note": "Buying interest on El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds shortened by 4.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on AL Nasr SC.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on El Seka El Hadid, with odds shortening by 4.6%.",
"Buying interest on El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds shortened by 4.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on AL Nasr SC.",
"At the same time, El Seka El Hadid has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on El Seka El Hadid."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.4,
"lead": "The model rates AL Nasr SC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.36,
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.0,
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.37,
"edge_pp": -1.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Seka El Hadid",
"market_prob_pct": 32.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on El Seka El Hadid \u2014 odds shortened by 4.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (32.6%).",
"El Seka El Hadid has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.6%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 AL Nasr SC, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 El Seka El Hadid.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.31,
"closing_odds": 2.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.31,
"entry_odds": 2.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on El Seka El Hadid (4.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"2.96",
"2.66"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.64 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 5m",
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
2.66,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,4.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.66"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/8 sportsbooks on El Seka El Hadid",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward El Seka El Hadid while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "El Seka El Hadid",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "el-seka-el-hadid",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"away_team_id": 18031,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18031.webp",
"away_team_name": "El Seka El Hadid",
"away_team_public_id": "2nHhm5LGkl7WWS",
"away_team_slug": "el-seka-el-hadid",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594841,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"home_team_id": 2617,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2617.webp",
"home_team_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"home_team_public_id": "0usao39QRS5CWl",
"home_team_slug": "al-nasr-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-nasr-sc",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 13:30:00",
"public_id": "1Lb3x84iesKSTL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4408,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.1421,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3454,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3225
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4163,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1788,
"implied_prob": 0.3454,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3454,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3246
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3454,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.352
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.061,
"ev": -0.1623,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0998,
"ev": -0.2526,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": 0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.3731,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2088,
"alpha_yes": 0.1898,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1041,
"edge_yes": 0.1041,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2385,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1168,
"ev_yes": 0.1696,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0397,
"implied_no": 0.5601,
"implied_yes": 0.4399,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5603,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4397,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4595
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5385,
"p_final_yes": 0.4595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1465,
"alpha_under": 0.2015,
"best_over_odd": 2.75,
"best_under_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.405,
"edge_over": 0.1267,
"edge_under": -0.1267,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3255,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0521,
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.133,
"implied_over": 0.3553,
"implied_over_mf": 0.358,
"implied_under": 0.6447,
"implied_under_mf": 0.642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3761
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2015,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6171
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3761,
"p_final_under": 0.6171,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AL Nasr SC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AL Nasr SC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AL Nasr SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward El Seka El Hadid, but the model still strongly favours AL Nasr SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3731343283582089,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0444,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "AL Nasr SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0198,
"market_prob": 0.4397,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5603,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5385
},
"p_final": 0.4595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4397,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4595
}
},
"edge": 0.1041,
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4399,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3761
},
"p_final": 0.3761,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0521,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2015,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6171
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1267,
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594841,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3255,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4399,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4399,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "El Seka El Hadid",
"home": "AL Nasr SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.109824,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3553,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3731343283582089,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0444,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594841,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T13:29:15.763733+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk AL Nasr SC & El Seka El Hadid!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Mesir — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
