Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
Not available
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Proxy Team ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Team win · 1–0
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
No prediction record
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Team win · Team 1–0 Proxy
Prediction
No prediction record
Decision Grade
Not assessed
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
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"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
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"away_expected": 1.37,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.6
},
{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Team or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Team or Proxy",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Proxy",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
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"odds": 2.54
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.05,
"draw": 33.54,
"home": 30.42
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 13:29:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 13:00:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Team",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": 1.53,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.54,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.05,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.32,
"gap_pp": 11.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.68,
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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}
},
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"best_value": null,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"alpha": 0.1485,
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"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
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"p_final": 0.3826
},
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"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2339,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.4,
"text": "+23.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10360.51,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0181,
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"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
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"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1261,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.6,
"text": "+12.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1261,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10113.49,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0578,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0578,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Proxy",
"sort_key": 1785.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Team",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.97,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"market_team": "Proxy",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Proxy",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Proxy at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Proxy as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Proxy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.97,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Team",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Proxy at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Proxy as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Proxy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Team 1.23 xG vs Proxy 1.37 \u2192 Proxy 38.5%",
"Market: Proxy ~36.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Team \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Proxy, but sharp money moved toward Team.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.52,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Team",
"market_prob": 30.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.97,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Proxy",
"market_prob": 36.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.21,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.21,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.54,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Team"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Proxy",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Team 1.23 xG vs Proxy 1.37 \u2192 Proxy 38.5%",
"Market: Proxy ~36.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Team \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Proxy, but sharp money moved toward Team.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.97,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Team odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Team, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Team, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Team has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/10), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.52,
"edge_pp": 1.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Team",
"market_prob_pct": 30.42,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.97,
"edge_pp": -3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.44,
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Proxy",
"market_prob_pct": 36.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Proxy (36.0%).",
"Team has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.7%, 2/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Proxy, Market \u2192 Proxy, Recent sharp money \u2192 Team.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.63,
"closing_odds": 2.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.63,
"entry_odds": 2.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "2/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Team (swing 3.01 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.80) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.01",
"2.90",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.01 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 30m",
"pick_team": "Team",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.01,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.9 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Team",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Team while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Team",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/10",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Team",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Team",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "proxy",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Proxy",
"away_team_id": 20461,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20461.webp",
"away_team_name": "Proxy",
"away_team_public_id": "2ovoIi0AT1BVWO",
"away_team_slug": "proxy",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594829,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "Team",
"home_team_id": 25472,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25472.webp",
"home_team_name": "Team",
"home_team_public_id": "3zDdi7IdZP9wBB",
"home_team_slug": "team",
"ht.home_team_slug": "team",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 13:30:00",
"public_id": "3UcPHcqHPzaCXf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4337,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3605,
"draw": 0.3354,
"home": 0.3042
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3709
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4233,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.3354,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3605,
"draw": 0.3354,
"home": 0.3042
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3186
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2931,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.3042,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3605,
"draw": 0.3354,
"home": 0.3042
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3087
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.023,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": -0.0704,
"ev": -0.1923,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2127,
"alpha_yes": 0.1933,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.07,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0921,
"edge_yes": 0.0921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"ev_yes": 0.1261,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0447,
"implied_no": 0.5481,
"implied_yes": 0.4519,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5299
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4683
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5299,
"p_final_yes": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1485,
"alpha_under": 0.2042,
"best_over_odd": 2.56,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.45,
"edge_over": 0.1159,
"edge_under": -0.1159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2339,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0359,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"implied_over": 0.3661,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3652,
"implied_under": 0.6339,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6348,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3652,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6109
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3826,
"p_final_under": 0.6109,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Proxy at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Proxy as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Proxy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Team, but the model still strongly favours Proxy.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Proxy"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0181,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5299
},
"p_final": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0447,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4683
}
},
"edge": 0.0921,
"ev": 0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3652,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3652,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"p_final": 0.3826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6348,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6109
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1159,
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594829,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2339,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Proxy",
"home": "Team"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078918,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0578,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594829,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T13:29:39.366535+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Team & Proxy!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Mesir — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 2 | Pharco | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Haras El Hodood | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 6 | El Mansura | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | El Seka El Hadid | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | AL Nasr SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Tersana | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 12 | Ismaily SC | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Team | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 14 | El Entag El Harby | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 15 | El Dakhleya | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Tanta SC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | La Viena FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Proxy | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 19 | Dayrout | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 11 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | El Seka El Hadid | 11 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 18 |
| 4 | Pharco | 11 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | El Entag El Harby | 11 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 11 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 11 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 | El Mansura | 11 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 | Haras El Hodood | 11 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 | Tersana | 11 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 17 |
| 11 | Ismaily SC | 11 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 11 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 13 | Team | 11 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 11 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 15 | El Dakhleya | 11 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Proxy | 11 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Mega Sport | 11 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Tanta SC | 11 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 | La Viena FC | 11 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 11 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 7 |
