The model missed the final outcome (AL Nasr SC win 2–0).
The model had projected Dayrout at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Dayrout AL Nasr SC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Nasr SC | 33.8% | 55.1% | -21.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Dayrout | 36.6% | 19.8% | +16.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates AL Nasr SC's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah AL Nasr SC win 2–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dayrout by 21.3 percentage points (57.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Dayrout 36.6%
- xG · AL Nasr SC 1.27 — Dayrout 1.33
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 1.66 · Draw 3.65 · Dayrout 4.61
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 55.1% · Draw 25.1% · Dayrout 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 1.66 · Draw 3.65 · Dayrout 4.61
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 55.1% · Draw 25.1% · Dayrout 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result AL Nasr SC win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
AL Nasr SC win · AL Nasr SC 2–0 Dayrout
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : AL Nasr SC or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "AL Nasr SC"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Dayrout",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1676,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1984,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 4.61
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Dayrout Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.04,
"market_odds": 4.61,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 14.9,
"value_pct": 68.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "AL Nasr SC or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "AL Nasr SC or Dayrout",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dayrout",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "AL Nasr SC or Dayrout",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Dayrout"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 68.9,
"implied_prob": 21.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Dayrout Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 4.61
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dayrout",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 19.84,
"draw": 25.06,
"home": 55.1
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-10 13:29:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-10 12:59:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "AL Nasr SC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.1,
"gap_pp": -21.35,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.06,
"gap_pp": 4.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.84,
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"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.21,
"gap_pp": 7.99,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.79,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.65,
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},
{
"closing": 4.61,
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},
{
"closing": 2.32,
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{
"closing": 1.56,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.199,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.3,
"text": "-26.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2535,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2535,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10378.15,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.285,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4172
},
"p_final": 0.4172,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1014,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2295,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1231,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.3,
"text": "+12.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1231,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10110.79,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0303,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0303,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Dayrout",
"sort_key": 10027.27,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"alert_team": "Dayrout",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.33,
"hero_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 19.8,
"market_team": "AL Nasr SC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Dayrout",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dayrout",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +69% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594823 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +69% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0303,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21691973969631234,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4166666666666667,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.33,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Dayrout",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dayrout",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +69% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594823 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +69% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0303,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21691973969631234,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AL Nasr SC 1.27 xG vs Dayrout 1.33 \u2192 Dayrout 36.6%",
"Market: AL Nasr SC ~19.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Dayrout odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dayrout, but the market has moved away from Dayrout.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.75,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Dayrout",
"market_prob": 19.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.69,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Dayrout"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates AL Nasr SC\u0027s win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dayrout",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AL Nasr SC 1.27 xG vs Dayrout 1.33 \u2192 Dayrout 36.6%",
"Market: AL Nasr SC ~19.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Dayrout odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dayrout, but the market has moved away from Dayrout.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.33,
"hero_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Dayrout odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "AL Nasr SC",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices AL Nasr SC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -21.33,
"edge_pp": -21.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AL Nasr SC",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.58,
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.75,
"edge_pp": 16.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dayrout",
"market_prob_pct": 19.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AL Nasr SC (19.8%).",
"Dayrout odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 5/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dayrout, Market \u2192 AL Nasr SC, while Dayrout odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Dayrout (swing 5.50 \u2192 4.26 \u2192 5.00) \u2014 net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.80",
"4.61"
],
"display": "5.50 \u2192 4.26 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 38m",
"pick_team": "Dayrout",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.26"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
4.61,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,11.5 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.61"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Dayrout",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Dayrout while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Dayrout",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Dayrout",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Dayrout",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dayrout",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dayrout",
"away_team_id": 18022,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18022.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dayrout",
"away_team_public_id": "46i7yz3PRwSgq0",
"away_team_slug": "dayrout",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594823,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"home_team_id": 2617,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2617.webp",
"home_team_name": "AL Nasr SC",
"home_team_public_id": "0usao39QRS5CWl",
"home_team_slug": "al-nasr-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-nasr-sc",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-10 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2yCDrfcoMGk6wI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 4.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": 0.0303,
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1984,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.551
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2235
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2794,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1984,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.551
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2634
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0871,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1984,
"draw": 0.2506,
"home": 0.551
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.61,
"edge": 0.1491,
"ev": 0.6872,
"implied_prob": 0.2169,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0225,
"ev": 0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.2649,
"ev": -0.4397,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1998,
"alpha_yes": 0.1453,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1269,
"edge_yes": 0.1269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.2535,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0427,
"implied_no": 0.5819,
"implied_yes": 0.4181,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5579,
"p_final_yes": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1669,
"alpha_under": 0.2295,
"best_over_odd": 2.33,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.285,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.55,
"edge_over": 0.0803,
"edge_under": -0.0803,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1231,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0468,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1042,
"implied_over": 0.4017,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4042,
"implied_under": 0.5983,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5958,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4172
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2295,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4172,
"p_final_under": 0.578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6872,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2535,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dayrout",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +69% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594823 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +25.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dayrout, but the model still strongly favours Dayrout.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +69% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0303,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21691973969631234,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": 0.0303,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Dayrout"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"edge": 0.1269,
"ev": 0.2535,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4181,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.285,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4172
},
"p_final": 0.4172,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2295,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0803,
"ev": 0.1231,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4017,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594823,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2535,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.4017,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.4017,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dayrout",
"home": "AL Nasr SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.138158,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2535,
"implied_prob": 0.4181,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0303,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.61,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1984,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21691973969631234,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594823,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T13:29:21.281881+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk AL Nasr SC & Dayrout!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Mesir — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | AL Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
