AI correctly predicted the Fraserburgh win.
The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Fraserburgh Fraserburgh ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraserburgh | 35.2% | 32.6% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.6% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Stirling Albion | 35.2% | 43.8% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stirling Albion's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Fraserburgh win 4–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stirling Albion. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fraserburgh higher (43.8% vs model 35.2%, 8.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fraserburgh win 4–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fraserburgh 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Stirling Albion 35.2%
- xG · Fraserburgh 1.30 — Stirling Albion 1.30
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fraserburgh 2.75 · Draw 3.80 · Stirling Albion 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · Fraserburgh 32.6% · Draw 23.6% · Stirling Albion 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Fraserburgh 2.75 · Draw 3.80 · Stirling Albion 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · Fraserburgh 32.6% · Draw 23.6% · Stirling Albion 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fraserburgh win · 4–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.05
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fraserburgh win · Fraserburgh 4–3 Stirling Albion
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"pick": "No",
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{
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{
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],
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{
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:10:23",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"ev_available": true,
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{
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"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0291,
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}
},
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"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 45.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10410.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0724,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0402,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fraserburgh",
"sort_key": 1789.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"alert_team": "Fraserburgh",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.6,
"hero_label": "Stirling Albion",
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"market_team": "Stirling Albion",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Fraserburgh",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fraserburgh at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fraserburgh as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fraserburgh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.6,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"steam_team": "Fraserburgh",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fraserburgh at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fraserburgh as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fraserburgh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fraserburgh 1.30 xG vs Stirling Albion 1.30 \u2192 Fraserburgh 35.2%",
"Market: Stirling Albion ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Fraserburgh odds \u2191 +5.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fraserburgh, but the market has moved away from Fraserburgh.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.55,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Fraserburgh",
"market_prob": 32.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.04,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Stirling Albion",
"market_prob": 43.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.19,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.19,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Stirling Albion",
"market_prob_pct": 43.77,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Fraserburgh"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stirling Albion\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fraserburgh",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fraserburgh 1.30 xG vs Stirling Albion 1.30 \u2192 Fraserburgh 35.2%",
"Market: Stirling Albion ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Fraserburgh odds \u2191 +5.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fraserburgh, but the market has moved away from Fraserburgh.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.6,
"hero_label": "Stirling Albion",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Fraserburgh odds lengthened \u2191 +5.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Fraserburgh has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stirling Albion. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Fraserburgh \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stirling Albion. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Fraserburgh has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Fraserburgh \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stirling Albion above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Fraserburgh has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stirling Albion",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stirling Albion higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.55,
"edge_pp": 2.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fraserburgh",
"market_prob_pct": 32.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.04,
"edge_pp": 6.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.6,
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stirling Albion",
"market_prob_pct": 43.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Fraserburgh \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stirling Albion (32.6%).",
"Fraserburgh odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.8%, 4/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fraserburgh, Market \u2192 Stirling Albion, while Fraserburgh odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Fraserburgh (5.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.75",
"2.67",
"2.60"
],
"display": "2.77 \u2192 2.51 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 10m",
"pick_team": "Fraserburgh",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Fraserburgh",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Market moved away from Fraserburgh while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Fraserburgh",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Fraserburgh",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Fraserburgh",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "stirling-albion",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Stirling Albion",
"away_team_id": 4669,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4669.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stirling Albion",
"away_team_public_id": "3GHblphFyFCqGp",
"away_team_slug": "stirling-albion",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1593621,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Fraserburgh",
"home_team_id": 6769,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6769.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fraserburgh",
"home_team_public_id": "00BRtwnJ0oNx2u",
"home_team_slug": "fraserburgh",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fraserburgh",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Piala Cabaran Scotland",
"league_id": 182,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/182.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Cabaran Scotland",
"league_public_id": "3nBcrPVpwkKC27",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2JvV1CifBQRXm7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Fraserburgh",
"venue_name": "Bellslea Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.392,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.4377,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4377,
"draw": 0.2361,
"home": 0.3262
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.404
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2728,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.2361,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4377,
"draw": 0.2361,
"home": 0.3262
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2526
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4377,
"draw": 0.2361,
"home": 0.3262
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3373
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.136,
"ev": -0.2789,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.0333,
"ev": 0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0867,
"alpha_yes": 0.1908,
"best_no_odd": 3.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1519,
"edge_yes": -0.1519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.456,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0533,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1309,
"implied_no": 0.3031,
"implied_yes": 0.6969,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0867,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3023,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3156
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1908,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6977,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6685
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3156,
"p_final_yes": 0.6685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1658,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.04,
"edge_over": -0.2172,
"edge_under": 0.2172,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1414,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_over": 0.6992,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7021,
"implied_under": 0.3008,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2979,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6656,
"p_final_under": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fraserburgh at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fraserburgh as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fraserburgh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fraserburgh, but the model still strongly favours Fraserburgh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Fraserburgh"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0867,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.3023,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0867,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3023,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3156
},
"p_final": 0.3156,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0533,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1908,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6977,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6685
}
},
"edge": 0.1519,
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3031,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.2979,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 1.29,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1414,
"implied_prob": 0.7021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6656
},
"p_final": 0.3155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3155
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2172,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1593621,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3031,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.456,
"implied_prob": 0.3031,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stirling Albion",
"home": "Fraserburgh"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3262,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1593621,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:10:25.882031+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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