AI correctly predicted the Annan Athletic win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 37.1% | 71.5% | -34.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 13.4% | +16.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Hibernian U21 | 33.3% | 15.1% | +18.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Annan Athletic's win probability at 71.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 34.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Annan Athletic win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Annan Athletic higher (71.6% vs model 37.1%, 34.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Annan Athletic win 2–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Annan Athletic 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Hibernian U21 33.4%
- xG · Annan Athletic 1.34 — Hibernian U21 1.26
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Sep 26, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Annan Athletic 1.26 · Draw 6.71 · Hibernian U21 5.98
- Implied 1X2 · Annan Athletic 71.5% · Draw 13.4% · Hibernian U21 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Annan Athletic 1.26 · Draw 6.71 · Hibernian U21 5.98
- Implied 1X2 · Annan Athletic 71.5% · Draw 13.4% · Hibernian U21 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Annan Athletic win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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