Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Dunia. Liga Europa UEFA / Qarabag FK vs CSKA Sofia

Audit Ramalan: Qarabag FK vs CSKA Sofia Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Qarabag FK Qarabag FK
Jul 23, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 49%
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected CSKA Sofia at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Qarabag FK higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Qarabag FK -31.0 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Qarabag FK 32.9% 63.9% -31.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.7% +7.9 pp Model Higher
CSKA Sofia 37.5% 14.4% +23.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Qarabag FK's win probability at 63.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 31.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned CSKA Sofia; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CSKA Sofia by 31.0 percentage points (68.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Jul 23, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Qarabag FK 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · CSKA Sofia 37.6%
    • xG · Qarabag FK 1.25 — CSKA Sofia 1.35
  2. Jul 23, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Qarabag FK 1.45 · Draw 4.27 · CSKA Sofia 6.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Qarabag FK 63.9% · Draw 21.7% · CSKA Sofia 14.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Qarabag FK 1.45 · Draw 4.27 · CSKA Sofia 6.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Qarabag FK 63.9% · Draw 21.7% · CSKA Sofia 14.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450497

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds 2.66
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Qarabag FK 0–0 CSKA Sofia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours CSKA Sofia; market prices Qarabag FK instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Qarabag FK 1.25 xG vs CSKA Sofia 1.35 → CSKA Sofia 37.5%
  • Market: Qarabag FK ~14.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 18, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Liga Europa UEFA Perlawanan Jejak Qarabag FK Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak CSKA Sofia Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Langgan Sekarang
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Liga Europa UEFA Liga Europa UEFA — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Anderlecht 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia 0 0 0 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar 0 0 0 0 0
4 Benfica 0 0 0 0 0
5 Beşiktaş 0 0 0 0 0
6 Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0
7 Celje 0 0 0 0 0
8 Celta Vigo 0 0 0 0 0
9 Celtic 0 0 0 0 0
10 Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0
11 Ferencvárosi TC 0 0 0 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb 0 0 0 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0 0 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0 0 0 0
15 Jagiellonia 0 0 0 0 0
16 Juventus 0 0 0 0 0
17 Lech Poznań 0 0 0 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen 0 0 0 0 0
19 Levski Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
20 Lillestrøm 0 0 0 0 0
21 Lyon 0 0 0 0 0
22 Marseille 0 0 0 0 0
23 AC Milan 0 0 0 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen 0 0 0 0 0
25 OFI 0 0 0 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0 0 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia 0 0 0 0 0
28 Real Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0
29 Rennes 0 0 0 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg 0 0 0 0 0
31 Sparta Praha 0 0 0 0 0
32 Sturm Graz 0 0 0 0 0
33 Sunderland 0 0 0 0 0
34 Torreense 0 0 0 0 0
35 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 0 0 0 0
36 Plzen 0 0 0 0 0
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Anderlecht 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia 0 0 0 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar 0 0 0 0 0
4 Benfica 0 0 0 0 0
5 Beşiktaş 0 0 0 0 0
6 Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0
7 Celje 0 0 0 0 0
8 Celta Vigo 0 0 0 0 0
9 Celtic 0 0 0 0 0
10 Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0
11 Ferencvárosi TC 0 0 0 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb 0 0 0 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0 0 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0 0 0 0
15 Jagiellonia 0 0 0 0 0
16 Juventus 0 0 0 0 0
17 Lech Poznań 0 0 0 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen 0 0 0 0 0
19 Levski Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
20 Lillestrøm 0 0 0 0 0
21 Lyon 0 0 0 0 0
22 Marseille 0 0 0 0 0
23 AC Milan 0 0 0 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen 0 0 0 0 0
25 OFI 0 0 0 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0 0 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia 0 0 0 0 0
28 Real Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0
29 Rennes 0 0 0 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg 0 0 0 0 0
31 Sparta Praha 0 0 0 0 0
32 Sturm Graz 0 0 0 0 0
33 Sunderland 0 0 0 0 0
34 Torreense 0 0 0 0 0
35 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 0 0 0 0
36 Plzen 0 0 0 0 0
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 0 2.5 0.5 +2.0 0
2 Sunderland 0 2.9 1.5 +1.4 0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 0 1.9 0.9 +1.0 0
4 Rennes 0 1.8 0.8 +1.0 0
5 Celta Vigo 0 1.2 0.3 +0.9 0
6 Sparta Praha 0 2.5 1.9 +0.6 0
7 Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0.8 0.3 +0.5 0
8 AC Milan 0 1.0 0.6 +0.4 0
9 Anderlecht 0 1.4 1.3 +0.1 0
10 Lyon 0 1.3 1.4 -0.1 0
11 Benfica 0 0.6 1.0 -0.4 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb 0 0.3 0.8 -0.5 0
13 Ararat-Armenia 0 1.9 2.5 -0.6 0
14 Omonia Nicosia 0 0.3 1.2 -0.9 0
15 Celje 0 0.9 1.9 -1.0 0
16 Sturm Graz 0 0.8 1.8 -1.0 0
17 AZ Alkmaar 0 1.5 2.9 -1.4 0
18 Jagiellonia 0 0.5 2.5 -2.0 0
19 Beşiktaş 0 — — — 0
20 Bournemouth 0 — — — 0
21 Celtic 0 — — — 0
22 Crystal Palace 0 — — — 0
23 Ferencvárosi TC 0 — — — 0
24 1899 Hoffenheim 0 — — — 0
25 Juventus 0 — — — 0
26 Lech Poznań 0 — — — 0
27 Levski Sofia 0 — — — 0
28 Lillestrøm 0 — — — 0
29 Marseille 0 — — — 0
30 NEC Nijmegen 0 — — — 0
31 OFI 0 — — — 0
32 Real Sociedad 0 — — — 0
33 Red Bull Salzburg 0 — — — 0
34 Torreense 0 — — — 0
35 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 — — — 0
36 Plzen 0 — — — 0