AI correctly predicted the Toluca U21 win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Toluca U21 Toluca U21 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca U21 | 39.0% | 51.6% | -12.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.9% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Atlas U21 | 31.5% | 21.4% | +10.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Toluca U21's win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Toluca U21 win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Toluca U21 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Toluca U21 higher (51.7% vs model 39.0%, 12.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Toluca U21 win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Toluca U21 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Atlas U21 31.5%
- xG · Toluca U21 1.38 — Atlas U21 1.22
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Toluca U21 1.72 · Draw 3.30 · Atlas U21 4.14
- Implied 1X2 · Toluca U21 51.6% · Draw 26.9% · Atlas U21 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Toluca U21 1.72 · Draw 3.30 · Atlas U21 4.14
- Implied 1X2 · Toluca U21 51.6% · Draw 26.9% · Atlas U21 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Toluca U21 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
36/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Toluca U21 win · Toluca U21 2–0 Atlas U21
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"divergence_pp": 12.7,
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
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"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.3038,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Toluca U21 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Toluca U21 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Toluca U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Toluca U21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.52 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592847 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.52 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.66,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Toluca U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3038,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Toluca U21 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Toluca U21 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Toluca U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Toluca U21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.52 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592847 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.52 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Toluca U21 1.38 xG vs Atlas U21 1.22 \u2192 Toluca U21 39.0%",
"Market: Toluca U21 ~51.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Toluca U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Toluca U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.66,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Toluca U21",
"market_prob": 51.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.03,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Atlas U21",
"market_prob": 21.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.08,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.08,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Toluca U21",
"market_prob_pct": 51.63,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Toluca U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Toluca U21\u0027s win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Toluca U21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Toluca U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Toluca U21 1.38 xG vs Atlas U21 1.22 \u2192 Toluca U21 39.0%",
"Market: Toluca U21 ~51.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Toluca U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Toluca U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.66,
"hero_label": "Toluca U21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Toluca U21 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Toluca U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Toluca U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Toluca U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Toluca U21 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Toluca U21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Toluca U21 (pricing gap 12.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Toluca U21",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Toluca U21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.66,
"edge_pp": -12.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Toluca U21",
"market_prob_pct": 51.63,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.63,
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.03,
"edge_pp": 10.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atlas U21",
"market_prob_pct": 21.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Toluca U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Toluca U21 (51.6%).",
"Toluca U21 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.14,
"closing_odds": 1.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.14,
"entry_odds": 1.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 1.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "Toluca U21",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Toluca U21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atlas U21",
"away_team_id": 26828,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Atlas U21",
"away_team_public_id": "3buFCkC9N2Eb6c",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1592847,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Toluca U21",
"home_team_id": 26843,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Toluca U21",
"home_team_public_id": "1i0Q5fz50lIXG7",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Bawah 21",
"league_id": 1200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1200.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Bawah 21",
"league_public_id": "32JpgY71mc3AvL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "3HN0Dt8Neob9YH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1699,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.2145,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2145,
"draw": 0.2691,
"home": 0.5163
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2316
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2882,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0869,
"implied_prob": 0.2691,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2145,
"draw": 0.2691,
"home": 0.5163
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2767
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.486,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0616,
"ev": -0.2178,
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2145,
"draw": 0.2691,
"home": 0.5163
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4548
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": 0.0734,
"ev": 0.3038,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.1917,
"ev": -0.3298,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.225,
"alpha_yes": 0.2474,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0008,
"edge_yes": -0.0008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0809,
"ev_yes": -0.0752,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0808,
"implied_no": 0.4552,
"implied_yes": 0.5448,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.225,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": -0.0,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4561
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2474,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5439
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4561,
"p_final_yes": 0.5439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2261,
"alpha_under": 0.2056,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.715,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0549,
"edge_under": 0.0549,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0508,
"implied_over": 0.5369,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5396,
"implied_under": 0.4631,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4604,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2261,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5266
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4722
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5266,
"p_final_under": 0.4722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3038,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3038,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Toluca U21 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Toluca U21 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Toluca U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Toluca U21 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.52 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +30% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1592847 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.52 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +30% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Toluca U21).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0616,
"ev": -0.2178,
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Toluca U21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.225,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.015,
"edge": -0.0,
"market_prob": 0.4561,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.225,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": -0.0,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4561
},
"p_final": 0.4561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0809,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2474,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5439
}
},
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4552,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4604,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2261,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5266
},
"p_final": 0.4722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0508,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4722
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0549,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4631,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1592847,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atlas U21",
"home": "Toluca U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4631,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5163,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3297,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1592847,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:01:41.038757+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Toluca U21 & Atlas U21!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga MX Bawah 21 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Club León U21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Club América U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Juárez U21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Querétaro U21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 2 | Club León U21 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis U21 | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Club América U21 | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Querétaro U21 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Juárez U21 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 10 |
