AI correctly predicted the Halide Edip Adıvar win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Halide Edip Adıvar Halide Edip Adıvar ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kırklarelispor | 29.7% | 36.8% | -7.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 30.4% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Halide Edip Adıvar | 40.9% | 32.9% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Halide Edip Adıvar's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Halide Edip Adıvar win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Halide Edip Adıvar.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Halide Edip Adıvar more conservatively (32.8% vs model 40.9%, 8.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Halide Edip Adıvar win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kırklarelispor 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Halide Edip Adıvar 41.0%
- xG · Kırklarelispor 1.18 — Halide Edip Adıvar 1.42
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kırklarelispor 2.46 · Draw 2.98 · Halide Edip Adıvar 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Kırklarelispor 36.8% · Draw 30.4% · Halide Edip Adıvar 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kırklarelispor 2.49 · Draw 3.02 · Halide Edip Adıvar 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Kırklarelispor 36.8% · Draw 30.4% · Halide Edip Adıvar 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Halide Edip Adıvar win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
20/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Halide Edip Adıvar win · Kırklarelispor 1–2 Halide Edip Adıvar
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"alert_team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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],
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},
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},
"alignment_key": "agree",
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.1427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halide Edip Ad\u0131var at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halide Edip Ad\u0131var as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0059,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1428,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.06,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"steam_team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halide Edip Ad\u0131var at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halide Edip Ad\u0131var as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0059,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1428,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: K\u0131rklarelispor 1.18 xG vs Halide Edip Ad\u0131var 1.42 \u2192 Halide Edip Ad\u0131var 40.9%",
"Market: K\u0131rklarelispor ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u2193 -12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Halide Edip Ad\u0131var with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.12,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "K\u0131rklarelispor",
"market_prob": 36.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.95,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"market_prob": 32.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.33,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.33,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"market_prob_pct": 32.85,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Halide Edip Ad\u0131var\u0027s win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: K\u0131rklarelispor 1.18 xG vs Halide Edip Ad\u0131var 1.42 \u2192 Halide Edip Ad\u0131var 40.9%",
"Market: K\u0131rklarelispor ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u2193 -12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Halide Edip Ad\u0131var with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.06,
"hero_label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var odds shortened \u2193 -12.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"Recent line movement on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var (\u2193 -12.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.1,
"lead": "The model rates Halide Edip Ad\u0131var considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.12,
"edge_pp": -7.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "K\u0131rklarelispor",
"market_prob_pct": 36.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.95,
"edge_pp": -0.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.06,
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"market_prob_pct": 32.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers K\u0131rklarelispor (32.9%).",
"However, Halide Edip Ad\u0131var has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.7%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Halide Edip Ad\u0131var, Market \u2192 K\u0131rklarelispor, Recent sharp money \u2192 Halide Edip Ad\u0131var.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.84,
"closing_odds": 2.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.84,
"entry_odds": 2.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Halide Edip Ad\u0131var (12.7%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.81",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.03 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 59m",
"pick_team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.03"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.79,
2.76,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,9.9 37.3,11.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u2193 -12.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u2193 -12.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "halide-edip-advar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"away_team_id": 7406,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7406.webp",
"away_team_name": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"away_team_public_id": "0dyWIZv51nsipM",
"away_team_slug": "halide-edip-advar",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1591613,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "K\u0131rklarelispor",
"home_team_id": 3596,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3596.webp",
"home_team_name": "K\u0131rklarelispor",
"home_team_public_id": "13k327oYO4wato",
"home_team_slug": "krklarelispor",
"ht.home_team_slug": "krklarelispor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "2. Lig Turki",
"league_id": 205,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/205.webp",
"league_name": "2. Lig Turki",
"league_public_id": "3ZoDl7ddIsgnEL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 13:00:00",
"public_id": "07upWTBzC4hNVP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3953,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0059,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3035,
"home": 0.3681
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.3605
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2957,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3035,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3035,
"home": 0.3681
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.3006
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4017,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.3681,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3285,
"draw": 0.3035,
"home": 0.3681
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3393
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.1427,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0372,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.1051,
"ev": -0.2616,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2162,
"alpha_yes": 0.2378,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.78,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0233,
"edge_yes": 0.0233,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.094,
"ev_yes": -0.037,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0723,
"implied_no": 0.4823,
"implied_yes": 0.5177,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.485,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4794
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2378,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.515,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4794,
"p_final_yes": 0.5212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.2357,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0343,
"edge_under": -0.0343,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_over": 0.4477,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4501,
"implied_under": 0.5523,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.457,
"p_final_under": 0.5424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1427,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Halide Edip Ad\u0131var at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Halide Edip Ad\u0131var as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Halide Edip Ad\u0131var \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591613 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Halide Edip Ad\u0131var).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0059,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1428,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0059,
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2378,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.515,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.485,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4794
},
"p_final": 0.5212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2378,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.515,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5212
}
},
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": -0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.5177,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0343,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1591613,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Halide Edip Ad\u0131var",
"home": "K\u0131rklarelispor"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0059,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3285,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1428,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1591613,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T13:04:18.588390+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Lig Turki — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elazığspor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Somaspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 3 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Somaspor | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 8 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | |
| 15 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 17 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
