The model missed the final outcome (Ankara Demirspor win 3–1).
The model had projected Fethiyespor at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Fethiyespor Ankara Demirspor ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ankara Demirspor | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.2% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Fethiyespor | 37.1% | 30.2% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Fethiyespor's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.2%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Ankara Demirspor win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fethiyespor.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Fethiyespor; match finished Ankara Demirspor
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fethiyespor by 6.8 percentage points (30.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ankara Demirspor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Fethiyespor 37.0%
- xG · Ankara Demirspor 1.26 — Fethiyespor 1.34
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ankara Demirspor 2.29 · Draw 2.99 · Fethiyespor 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Ankara Demirspor 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Fethiyespor 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ankara Demirspor 2.29 · Draw 2.99 · Fethiyespor 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Ankara Demirspor 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Fethiyespor 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ankara Demirspor win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Lig Turki — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elazığspor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Somaspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 3 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Somaspor | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 8 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | |
| 15 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 17 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
