Audit Ramalan: Belediye Derincespor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Belediye Derincespor

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 64%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

AI correctly predicted the Belediye Derincespor win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan B-

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
1X2 Belediye Derincespor Belediye Derincespor ✔ Betul
Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Hasil	Model	Menutup Pasaran	Perbezaan	isyarat
Belediye Derincespor	38.0%	73.4%	-35.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	18.0%	+11.6 pp	Model Edge
Arnavutköy Belediyespor	32.4%	8.6%	+23.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Belediye Derincespor's win probability at 73.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 35.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Belediye Derincespor win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Belediye Derincespor higher (73.4% vs model 38.0%, 35.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Belediye Derincespor win 1–0).

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

Sep 12, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Belediye Derincespor 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 32.4%
- xG · Belediye Derincespor 1.36 — Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.24
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Belediye Derincespor 1.23 · Draw 5.03 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 10.48
- Implied 1X2 · Belediye Derincespor 73.4% · Draw 18.0% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 8.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Belediye Derincespor 1.23 · Draw 5.03 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 10.48
- Implied 1X2 · Belediye Derincespor 73.4% · Draw 18.0% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 8.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Belediye Derincespor win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait

Hasil Validated

Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)

Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 31/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (35 pp)

Bukti ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7438947

Closing Odds 1.23

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Belediye Derincespor win · Belediye Derincespor 1–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?: Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?: Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?: Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?: Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Belediye Derincespor; market prices Belediye Derincespor instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Belediye Derincespor 1.36 xG vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.24 → Belediye Derincespor 38.0%
Market: Belediye Derincespor ~73.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Lean struktur (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Bawah 2.5 51.8% · Lebih 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (ya 54.4% · Tidak 45.6%) Nilai kurus (harga): O/U 2.5 Bawah 2.5; BTTS ya

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang 2. Lig Turki Perlawanan Jejak Belediye Derincespor Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Arnavutköy Belediyespor Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Langgan Sekarang

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2. Lig Turki — Kedudukan

#	PASUKAN	P	M	S	K	Mata
1	Elazığspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Çorluspor 1947	3	2	1	0	7
3	Muş Menderesspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belediye Derincespor	3	2	1	0	7
6	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
7	Aliağa FAŞ	3	2	0	1	6
8	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
9	Şanlıurfaspor	3	1	2	0	5
10	Erbaaspor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Menemen Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	0	1	2	1
14	Isparta 32 Spor	3	0	1	2	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	0	0	3	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	3	0	1	2
18	Adana Demirspor	3	1	1	1

#	PASUKAN	P	J	B	+/-	Mata
1	Muş Menderesspor	3	11	5	+6	7
2	Elazığspor	3	10	1	+9	9
3	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	9	6	+3	7
4	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
5	Erbaaspor	3	8	8	0	4
6	Çorluspor 1947	3	7	0	+7	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	7	4	+3	5
8	Belediye Derincespor	3	6	3	+3	7
9	Aliağa FAŞ	3	6	6	0	6
10	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	6	9	-3	1
11	Şanlıurfaspor	3	5	4	+1	5
12	Menemen Belediyespor	3	4	7	-3	3
13	Isparta 32 Spor	3	4	7	-3	1
14	Adana Demirspor	3	3	4	-1
15	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
17	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	1	7	-6	0
18	Hatayspor	3	0	3	-3