AI correctly predicted the Bsk Bijelo Brdo win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo Bsk Bijelo Brdo ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 37.5% | 36.3% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Jadran LP | 32.9% | 34.3% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Jadran LP 32.9%
- xG · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 — Jadran LP 1.25
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2.49 · Draw 3.10 · Jadran LP 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 36.4% · Draw 29.2% · Jadran LP 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2.52 · Draw 3.12 · Jadran LP 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 36.3% · Draw 29.4% · Jadran LP 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bsk Bijelo Brdo win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
92/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–0 Jadran LP
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9936ad1f32e51e9ad48f83a84c93d1665e3279f993e420140188b4c58903eb16",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Jadran LP",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Jadran LP"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0122,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3634,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.52,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.75,
"market_odds": 2.52,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -2.1,
"value_pct": -5.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Jadran LP",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Jadran LP",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Jadran LP",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -5.3,
"implied_prob": 39.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Jadran LP",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.3,
"draw": 29.35,
"home": 36.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 14:59:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 14:30:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.74,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.34,
"gap_pp": 1.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.35,
"gap_pp": 0.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.3,
"gap_pp": -1.43,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.47,
"gap_pp": 3.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.53,
"gap_pp": -3.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.34,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 36.36,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.12,
"early": 3.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.15,
"implied_early_pct": 29.21,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.3,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.13,
"implied_early_pct": 34.43,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.47,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.74,
"implied_early_pct": 45.21,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.74,
"implied_early_pct": 54.79,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5116,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"p_final": 0.5194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0244,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0702,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5194
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1355,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4509,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4576
},
"p_final": 0.4576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0167,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2359,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.5491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0705,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"sort_key": 1782.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.45,
"hero_label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 36.3,
"market_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.45,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 xG vs Jadran LP 1.25 \u2192 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.5%",
"Market: Bsk Bijelo Brdo ~36.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bsk Bijelo Brdo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bsk Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob": 36.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.26,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob": 34.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.89,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 xG vs Jadran LP 1.25 \u2192 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 37.5%",
"Market: Bsk Bijelo Brdo ~36.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bsk Bijelo Brdo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bsk Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.45,
"hero_label": "Jadran LP",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Bsk Bijelo Brdo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Bsk Bijelo Brdo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Jadran LP",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.2,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob_pct": 36.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.26,
"edge_pp": 0.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.45,
"edge_pp": -1.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Jadran LP",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Bsk Bijelo Brdo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bsk Bijelo Brdo (36.3%).",
"Bsk Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.45,
"closing_odds": 2.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.45,
"entry_odds": 2.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jadran LP",
"away_team_id": 5708,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5708.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jadran LP",
"away_team_public_id": "15CohAs5QnTrGj",
"away_team_slug": "jadran-lp",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1590146,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"home_team_id": 1487,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1487.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"home_team_public_id": "0VltivieZi7TFQ",
"home_team_slug": "bsk-bijelo-brdo",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "First NL Croatia",
"league_id": 211,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/211.webp",
"league_name": "First NL Croatia",
"league_public_id": "1oWaYwo2RdS6hN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "4NLMa4vr1MvUnR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bijelo Brdo",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4403,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.343,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.2935,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2942
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4417,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.343,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.3634
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3688
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2137,
"alpha_yes": 0.2351,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0389,
"edge_yes": 0.0389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1355,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0976,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0702,
"implied_no": 0.4939,
"implied_yes": 0.5061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5194
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4813,
"p_final_yes": 0.5194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2145,
"alpha_under": 0.2359,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.675,
"edge_over": 0.0335,
"edge_under": -0.0335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0666,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0925,
"implied_over": 0.4485,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4509,
"implied_under": 0.5515,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5491,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4576
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2359,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.5491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5418
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4576,
"p_final_under": 0.5418,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.041,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bsk Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bsk Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"market_prob": 0.5116,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4813
},
"p_final": 0.5194,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0702,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2351,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5194
}
},
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4509,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.4509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4576
},
"p_final": 0.4576,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0666,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2359,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.5491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590146,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jadran LP",
"home": "Bsk Bijelo Brdo"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0705,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0532,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590146,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T14:59:28.861243+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Bsk Bijelo Brdo & Jadran LP!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
First NL Croatia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dugopolje | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Vukovar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Opatija | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vukovar | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Sesvete | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Dugopolje | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Opatija | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hrvace | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
