The model missed the final outcome (Racing FC Union Luxembourg win 1–3).
The model had projected F91 Dudelange at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 F91 Dudelange Racing FC Union Luxembourg ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F91 Dudelange | 36.6% | 42.8% | -6.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 33.8% | 31.1% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates F91 Dudelange's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Racing FC Union Luxembourg win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on F91 Dudelange. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on F91 Dudelange by 6.2 percentage points (42.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Racing FC Union Luxembourg 33.8%
- xG · F91 Dudelange 1.33 — Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1.27
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.14 · Draw 3.51 · Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 42.8% · Draw 26.1% · Racing FC Union Luxembourg 31.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.14 · Draw 3.51 · Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 42.8% · Draw 26.1% · Racing FC Union Luxembourg 31.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Racing FC Union Luxembourg win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win · F91 Dudelange 1–3 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:32:59",
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},
{
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{
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]
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},
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},
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{
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}
},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.2043,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 10107.37,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1385,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.049,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2168,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"sort_key": 1787.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.19,
"hero_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"market_team": "F91 Dudelange",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "F91 Dudelange",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2168,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.19,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.19,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "F91 Dudelange",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2168,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: F91 Dudelange 1.33 xG vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1.27 \u2192 F91 Dudelange 36.6%",
"Market: F91 Dudelange ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: F91 Dudelange +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean F91 Dudelange with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.19,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob": 42.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.56,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Racing FC Union Luxembourg",
"market_prob": 31.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.02,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.02,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob_pct": 42.78,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "F91 Dudelange"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates F91 Dudelange\u0027s win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "F91 Dudelange \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: F91 Dudelange 1.33 xG vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1.27 \u2192 F91 Dudelange 36.6%",
"Market: F91 Dudelange ~42.8% implied",
"Market Steam: F91 Dudelange +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean F91 Dudelange with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.19,
"hero_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on F91 Dudelange. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on F91 Dudelange.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on F91 Dudelange. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on F91 Dudelange."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices F91 Dudelange above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on F91 Dudelange (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on F91 Dudelange."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices F91 Dudelange higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.19,
"edge_pp": -6.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob_pct": 42.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.56,
"edge_pp": 3.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.63,
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Racing FC Union Luxembourg",
"market_prob_pct": 31.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on F91 Dudelange.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers F91 Dudelange (42.8%).",
"F91 Dudelange \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "F91 Dudelange",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing FC Union Luxembourg",
"away_team_id": 2030,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2030.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing FC Union Luxembourg",
"away_team_public_id": "0aHYe1sCAMRmao",
"away_team_slug": "racing-fc-union-luxembourg",
"country_code": "LU",
"country_display_name": "Luxembourg",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_id": 97,
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1589481,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Luxembourg",
"home_team_display_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"home_team_id": 578,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/578.webp",
"home_team_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"home_team_public_id": "0wMKDpRi2IYpBt",
"home_team_slug": "f91-dudelange",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_country_display": "Luxembourg",
"league_display_name": "Luxembourg National Division",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "Luxembourg National Division",
"league_public_id": "0RABo0hRc68yy3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0eW2d7GEEGsHjC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dudelange",
"venue_name": "Stade Jos Nosbaum"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4323,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3114,
"draw": 0.2608,
"home": 0.4278
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3227
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.284,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.2608,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3114,
"draw": 0.2608,
"home": 0.4278
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2709
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4083,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1385,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3114,
"draw": 0.2608,
"home": 0.4278
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4026
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0076,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1013,
"ev": -0.2168,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1108,
"alpha_yes": 0.1524,
"best_no_odd": 2.46,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0802,
"edge_yes": -0.0802,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1193,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0656,
"ev_yes": -0.2043,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1051,
"implied_no": 0.3748,
"implied_yes": 0.6252,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1108,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6129
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3837,
"p_final_yes": 0.6129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2058,
"alpha_under": 0.1497,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": -0.1109,
"edge_under": 0.1109,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1147,
"ev_under": 0.2121,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_over": 0.5929,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5942,
"implied_under": 0.4071,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4058,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1147,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4226
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5711,
"p_final_under": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2168,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1385,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "F91 Dudelange"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.3748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1108,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"p_final": 0.3837,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0656,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.6252,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6129
}
},
"edge": 0.0802,
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1147,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1109,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.4071,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1589481,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2121,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.3748,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing FC Union Luxembourg",
"home": "F91 Dudelange"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076907,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.4071,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1385,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2168,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1589481,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:16.531843+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk F91 Dudelange & Racing FC Union Luxembourg!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Luxembourg National Division — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 | US Hostert | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Wiltz | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 |
