AI correctly predicted the Notts County win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Notts County Notts County ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 36.1% | 34.6% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.2% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Grimsby Town | 34.2% | 39.2% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Notts County win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Notts County win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Notts County 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Grimsby Town 34.2%
- xG · Notts County 1.32 — Grimsby Town 1.28
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Notts County 2.25 · Draw 3.65 · Grimsby Town 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Notts County 40.2% · Draw 24.8% · Grimsby Town 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Notts County 2.65 · Draw 3.50 · Grimsby Town 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Notts County 34.6% · Draw 26.2% · Grimsby Town 39.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Notts County win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Notts County win · Notts County 2–1 Grimsby Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0656,
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"alert_team": "Notts County",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.95,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Notts County",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"summary": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Notts County at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Notts County as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Notts County",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.95,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"steam_team": "Notts County",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Notts County at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Notts County as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Notts County",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Notts County 1.32 xG vs Grimsby Town 1.28 \u2192 Notts County 36.1%",
"Market: Grimsby Town ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Notts County odds \u2191 +28.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Notts County, but the market has moved away from Notts County.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Notts County",
"market_prob": 34.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.45,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Grimsby Town",
"market_prob": 39.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.11,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.11,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Grimsby Town",
"market_prob_pct": 39.19,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Notts County"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Notts County",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Notts County 1.32 xG vs Grimsby Town 1.28 \u2192 Notts County 36.1%",
"Market: Grimsby Town ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Notts County odds \u2191 +28.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Notts County, but the market has moved away from Notts County.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.95,
"hero_label": "Grimsby Town",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Notts County odds lengthened \u2191 +28.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Notts County has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Notts County \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Notts County has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Notts County \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Notts County has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Notts County."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Grimsby Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.5,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Notts County",
"market_prob_pct": 34.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.45,
"edge_pp": 3.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.95,
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Grimsby Town",
"market_prob_pct": 39.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Notts County \u2014 odds lengthened by 28.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Grimsby Town (34.6%).",
"However, Notts County has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +28.9%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Notts County, Market \u2192 Grimsby Town, while Notts County odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books lengthened Notts County together (28.9% drift, score 84) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.65",
"2.27",
"1.90"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 1.90 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 49m",
"pick_team": "Notts County",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.9,
2.65,
2.25,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,9.6 56.0,4.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.9,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Notts County odds \u2191 +28.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Notts County",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Notts County odds \u2191 +28.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"summary": "Market moved away from Notts County while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Notts County",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +28.9%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Notts County",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_team_name": "Notts County",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "grimsby",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Grimsby Town",
"away_team_id": 1365,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1365.webp",
"away_team_name": "Grimsby Town",
"away_team_public_id": "0dcDFfm5QcggTc",
"away_team_slug": "grimsby",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588849,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Notts County",
"home_team_id": 1376,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1376.webp",
"home_team_name": "Notts County",
"home_team_public_id": "3Yb3MVtfeUur5d",
"home_team_slug": "notts-county",
"ht.home_team_slug": "notts-county",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Trofi EFL",
"league_id": 46,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/46.webp",
"league_name": "Trofi EFL",
"league_public_id": "0r9FfOzJWNDaw1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:00:00",
"public_id": "28CM9EiVleBGog",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nottingham",
"venue_name": "Meadow Lane"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4166,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.3919,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3919,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3461
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3713
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2844,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0484,
"implied_prob": 0.262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3919,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3461
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2719
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3919,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3461
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3526
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.085,
"ev": -0.1988,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1632,
"alpha_yes": 0.2244,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0611,
"edge_yes": -0.0611,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0654,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.11,
"implied_no": 0.3939,
"implied_yes": 0.6061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4028
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.11,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5933
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4028,
"p_final_yes": 0.5933,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2119,
"alpha_under": 0.1927,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0951,
"edge_under": 0.0951,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.108,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.035,
"implied_over": 0.5771,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5778,
"implied_under": 0.4229,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4222,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.5778,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5575
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4406
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5575,
"p_final_under": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Notts County at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Notts County as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Notts County",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Notts County, but the model still strongly favours Notts County.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Notts County"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.3927,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4028
},
"p_final": 0.4028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0654,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.11,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5933
}
},
"edge": 0.0611,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3939,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0185,
"market_prob": 0.4222,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.5778,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5575
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.035,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0951,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588849,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Grimsby Town",
"home": "Notts County"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.062563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3939,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588849,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T17:59:57.815139+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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