The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Rotherham at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Rotherham Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 34.2% | 42.2% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.2% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Rotherham | 36.1% | 31.6% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates York's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on York. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Rotherham; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rotherham by 8.0 percentage points (44.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · York 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Rotherham 36.1%
- xG · York 1.28 — Rotherham 1.32
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · York 2.17 · Draw 3.50 · Rotherham 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · York 42.2% · Draw 26.2% · Rotherham 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · York 2.17 · Draw 3.50 · Rotherham 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · York 42.2% · Draw 26.2% · Rotherham 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · York 1–1 Rotherham
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
]
},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+24.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2432,
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.029,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.029,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0466,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Rotherham",
"sort_key": 1792.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.98,
"hero_label": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"market_team": "York",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Rotherham",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rotherham at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rotherham as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rotherham",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0466,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.98,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rotherham at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rotherham as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rotherham",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0466,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York 1.28 xG vs Rotherham 1.32 \u2192 Rotherham 36.1%",
"Market: York ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rotherham with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.98,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "York",
"market_prob": 42.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.47,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.51,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Rotherham",
"market_prob": 31.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.56,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.56,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.86,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.86,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 42.22,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates York\u0027s win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rotherham",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Rotherham \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: York 1.28 xG vs Rotherham 1.32 \u2192 Rotherham 36.1%",
"Market: York ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rotherham with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.98,
"hero_label": "York",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on York. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on York. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices York above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "York",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices York higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.98,
"edge_pp": -7.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "York",
"market_prob_pct": 42.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.47,
"edge_pp": 3.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.51,
"edge_pp": 4.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rotherham",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers York (31.6%).",
"However, Draw has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.7%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rotherham, Market \u2192 York, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"closing_odds": 2.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.08,
"entry_odds": 2.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (5.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.60",
"3.50"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 49m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rotherham",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rotherham",
"away_team_id": 73,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/73.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rotherham",
"away_team_public_id": "2nLslqgnzdmozf",
"away_team_slug": "rotherham",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588830,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "York",
"home_team_id": 1828,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1828.webp",
"home_team_name": "York",
"home_team_public_id": "13YBAQBsbKmK6B",
"home_team_slug": "york",
"ht.home_team_slug": "york",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Trofi EFL",
"league_id": 46,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/46.webp",
"league_name": "Trofi EFL",
"league_public_id": "0r9FfOzJWNDaw1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3uE368TEGWRxFv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "York",
"venue_name": "York`s LNER Community Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4196,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3348
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2843,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2717
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3961,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.2618,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3906
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": 0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.1184,
"ev": -0.257,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1569,
"alpha_yes": 0.2157,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0786,
"edge_yes": -0.0786,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0524,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_no": 0.3764,
"implied_yes": 0.6236,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.3694,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3829
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6306,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6121
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3829,
"p_final_yes": 0.6121,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2036,
"alpha_under": 0.1481,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.305,
"edge_over": -0.1156,
"edge_under": 0.1156,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1156,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0382,
"implied_over": 0.5976,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6003,
"implied_under": 0.4024,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3997,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1156,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5762
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4173
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5762,
"p_final_under": 0.4173,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rotherham at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rotherham as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rotherham",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rotherham).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0466,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rotherham"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.3694,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.3694,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3829
},
"p_final": 0.3829,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0524,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6306,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6121
}
},
"edge": 0.0786,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3764,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3997,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1156,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5762
},
"p_final": 0.4173,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0382,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4173
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1156,
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588830,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rotherham",
"home": "York"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089453,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3764,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0466,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588830,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T17:59:33.216834+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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