AI correctly predicted the Ebbsfleet United win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge Angels | 34.2% | 34.4% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Ebbsfleet United | 36.1% | 37.6% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Ebbsfleet United win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ebbsfleet United win 1–2).
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Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tonbridge Angels 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Ebbsfleet United 36.1%
- xG · Tonbridge Angels 1.28 — Ebbsfleet United 1.32
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tonbridge Angels 2.70 · Draw 3.31 · Ebbsfleet United 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Tonbridge Angels 34.4% · Draw 28.0% · Ebbsfleet United 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Tonbridge Angels 2.70 · Draw 3.31 · Ebbsfleet United 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Tonbridge Angels 34.4% · Draw 28.0% · Ebbsfleet United 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ebbsfleet United win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
91/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.31
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ebbsfleet United win · Tonbridge Angels 1–2 Ebbsfleet United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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{
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0879,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0561,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1086,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ebbsfleet United",
"sort_key": 1785.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"alert_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.6,
"market_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ebbsfleet United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ebbsfleet United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ebbsfleet United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1086,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.61,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"steam_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ebbsfleet United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ebbsfleet United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ebbsfleet United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1086,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tonbridge Angels 1.28 xG vs Ebbsfleet United 1.32 \u2192 Ebbsfleet United 36.1%",
"Market: Ebbsfleet United ~37.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ebbsfleet United odds \u2191 +2.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ebbsfleet United, but the market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.14,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Tonbridge Angels",
"market_prob": 34.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ebbsfleet United",
"market_prob": 37.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.81,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.04,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ebbsfleet United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ebbsfleet United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tonbridge Angels 1.28 xG vs Ebbsfleet United 1.32 \u2192 Ebbsfleet United 36.1%",
"Market: Ebbsfleet United ~37.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ebbsfleet United odds \u2191 +2.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ebbsfleet United, but the market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Ebbsfleet United odds lengthened \u2191 +2.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ebbsfleet United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Ebbsfleet United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Ebbsfleet United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.14,
"edge_pp": -0.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tonbridge Angels",
"market_prob_pct": 34.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.61,
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.47,
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ebbsfleet United",
"market_prob_pct": 37.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ebbsfleet United (37.6%).",
"Ebbsfleet United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.1%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ebbsfleet United, Market \u2192 Ebbsfleet United, while Ebbsfleet United odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.21,
"closing_odds": 3.31,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.21,
"entry_odds": 3.31,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Ebbsfleet United (swing 2.47 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.40) \u2014 net 2.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.47",
"2.41",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.47,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ebbsfleet United while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Ebbsfleet United",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Ebbsfleet United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ebbsfleet-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Ebbsfleet United",
"away_team_id": 1840,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1840.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ebbsfleet United",
"away_team_public_id": "2lHG3FlnXVoNuf",
"away_team_slug": "ebbsfleet-united",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588375,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Tonbridge Angels",
"home_team_id": 8662,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8662.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tonbridge Angels",
"home_team_public_id": "3uKSSoupsgarwS",
"home_team_slug": "tonbridge-angels",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tonbridge-angels",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kebangsaan - Selatan",
"league_id": 51,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/51.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kebangsaan - Selatan",
"league_public_id": "1CLb0HhHXqBxus",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1AikkCbDVs3Ics",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Tonbridge",
"venue_name": "Longmead Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3758,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3438
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3693
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.2804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3758,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3438
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2852
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4491,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3438,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3758,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3438
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3432
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0439,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.0755,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2189,
"alpha_yes": 0.2408,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0181,
"edge_yes": -0.0181,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0218,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.074,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0894,
"implied_no": 0.4369,
"implied_yes": 0.5631,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4409
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2408,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4409,
"p_final_yes": 0.5587,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2246,
"alpha_under": 0.2246,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.97,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0321,
"edge_under": 0.0321,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0866,
"ev_under": 0.0205,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"implied_over": 0.5141,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5148,
"implied_under": 0.4859,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4852,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5075,
"p_final_under": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0205,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ebbsfleet United at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ebbsfleet United as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ebbsfleet United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ebbsfleet United, but the model still strongly favours Ebbsfleet United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1086,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0205,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4859,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ebbsfleet United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0039,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4409
},
"p_final": 0.4409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.074,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2408,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4369,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4925
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0321,
"ev": 0.0205,
"implied_prob": 0.4859,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588375,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ebbsfleet United",
"home": "Tonbridge Angels"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0879,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1086,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588375,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:07:49.232577+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Tonbridge Angels & Ebbsfleet United!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kebangsaan - Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Maidstone United | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Salisbury | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesham United | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 9 | Dover | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Braintree | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Truro City | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 13 | Farnham Town | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Horsham | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Slough Town | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 |
| 19 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maidenhead | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 22 | Farnborough | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
