The model missed the final outcome (Merthyr Town win 2–1).
The model had projected Macclesfield at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Macclesfield Merthyr Town ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Macclesfield; match finished Merthyr Town
Market lesson
The full-time result was Merthyr Town win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Merthyr Town 1.25 — Macclesfield 1.35
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Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Merthyr Town win · 2–1
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Merthyr Town win · Merthyr Town 2–1 Macclesfield
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kebangsaan - Utara — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop Town | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 16 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 20 |
| 4 | Buxton | 10 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Hednesford Town | 10 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Chorley | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | South Shields | 10 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 10 | Spalding United | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 12 | Bedford Town | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Macclesfield | 10 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 21 |
| 14 | Chester | 10 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 17 |
| 15 | Southport | 10 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 17 | Marine | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 18 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
| 20 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 21 | Harborough Town | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Worksop Town | 10 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 12 |
| 23 | Radcliffe | 10 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | AFC Telford United | 10 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
