AI correctly predicted the Werder Bremen II win.
The match finished 2–5, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-5 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Norderstedt | 32.9% | 39.5% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Werder Bremen II | 37.5% | 35.4% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Eintracht Norderstedt's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Werder Bremen II win 2–5).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Eintracht Norderstedt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Werder Bremen II higher (44.1% vs model 37.5%, 6.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Werder Bremen II win 2–5).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Eintracht Norderstedt 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Werder Bremen II 37.6%
- xG · Eintracht Norderstedt 1.25 — Werder Bremen II 1.35
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Eintracht Norderstedt 2.32 · Draw 3.64 · Werder Bremen II 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Eintracht Norderstedt 39.5% · Draw 25.2% · Werder Bremen II 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Eintracht Norderstedt 2.32 · Draw 3.64 · Werder Bremen II 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Eintracht Norderstedt 39.5% · Draw 25.2% · Werder Bremen II 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Werder Bremen II win · 2–5
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Werder Bremen II win · Eintracht Norderstedt 2–5 Werder Bremen II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "428780a36f77acc91cffc8182b43da30c7f5fea68df9dbc651baeec33e983dcd",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Eintracht Norderstedt or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Werder Bremen II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.022,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3536,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.59
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.59,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Werder Bremen II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.83,
"market_odds": 2.59,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -1.0,
"value_pct": -2.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Eintracht Norderstedt or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Eintracht Norderstedt or Werder Bremen II",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Werder Bremen II",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Eintracht Norderstedt or Werder Bremen II",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Werder Bremen II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.7,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.64
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Werder Bremen II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.36,
"draw": 25.16,
"home": 39.48
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:01:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:32:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.48,
"gap_pp": -6.61,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.16,
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.36,
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.64,
"early": 3.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.16,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.59,
"early": 2.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.36,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.5,
"ev": -0.0375,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.7,
"market_prob": 0.1299,
"market_prob_pct": 13.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0851,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0138,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.2924,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0851,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3062
},
"p_final": 0.3062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.415,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0477,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1871,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.7076,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6772
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4606,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 46.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4606,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10564.54,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3044,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"p_final": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5385,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0182,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.9,
"text": "-35.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.5385,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 53.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.5385,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10484.65,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0593,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0392,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Werder Bremen II",
"sort_key": 1790.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.63,
"hero_label": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Werder Bremen II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5385,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Werder Bremen II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Werder Bremen II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Werder Bremen II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.63,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5385,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Werder Bremen II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Werder Bremen II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Werder Bremen II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eintracht Norderstedt 1.25 xG vs Werder Bremen II 1.35 \u2192 Werder Bremen II 37.5%",
"Market: Eintracht Norderstedt ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Eintracht Norderstedt +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Werder Bremen II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"market_prob": 39.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Werder Bremen II",
"market_prob": 35.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.0,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"market_prob_pct": 39.48,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Eintracht Norderstedt\u0027s win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Werder Bremen II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eintracht Norderstedt 1.25 xG vs Werder Bremen II 1.35 \u2192 Werder Bremen II 37.5%",
"Market: Eintracht Norderstedt ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Eintracht Norderstedt +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Werder Bremen II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.63,
"hero_label": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Eintracht Norderstedt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eintracht Norderstedt.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Eintracht Norderstedt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eintracht Norderstedt."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Eintracht Norderstedt above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Eintracht Norderstedt (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Eintracht Norderstedt."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Eintracht Norderstedt higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.63,
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"market_prob_pct": 39.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.45,
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.18,
"edge_pp": 2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Werder Bremen II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eintracht Norderstedt.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Eintracht Norderstedt (35.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Werder Bremen II, Market \u2192 Eintracht Norderstedt, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.32,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.32,
"pick_team": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "werder-bremen-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Werder Bremen II",
"away_team_id": 1330,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1330.webp",
"away_team_name": "Werder Bremen II",
"away_team_public_id": "19nTWP1gSzft5c",
"away_team_slug": "werder-bremen-ii",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1586569,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"home_team_id": 1631,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1631.webp",
"home_team_name": "Eintracht Norderstedt",
"home_team_public_id": "0em0Ssb3GVSJYj",
"home_team_slug": "eintracht-norderstedt",
"ht.home_team_slug": "eintracht-norderstedt",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Nord",
"league_id": 84,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/84.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Nord",
"league_public_id": "1JYCcZ4RDo7bzB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:00:00",
"public_id": "1pgUsWTaRbneAB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Norderstedt",
"venue_name": "Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4351,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3536,
"draw": 0.2516,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3632
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2802,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.2516,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3536,
"draw": 0.2516,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2639
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4054,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1463,
"implied_prob": 0.3948,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3536,
"draw": 0.2516,
"home": 0.3948
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.368
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.027,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.1023,
"ev": -0.2374,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0851,
"alpha_yes": 0.1871,
"best_no_odd": 3.21,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.16,
"edge_yes": -0.16,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4606,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0477,
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"implied_no": 0.295,
"implied_yes": 0.705,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0851,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3062
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1871,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.7076,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6772
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3062,
"p_final_yes": 0.6772,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1682,
"alpha_under": 0.1223,
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 2.97,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.3,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.97,
"edge_over": -0.2078,
"edge_under": 0.2078,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1425,
"ev_under": 0.5385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0182,
"implied_over": 0.6898,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6956,
"implied_under": 0.3102,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3044,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6596,
"p_final_under": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5385,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5385,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Werder Bremen II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Werder Bremen II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Werder Bremen II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Eintracht Norderstedt, but the model still strongly favours Werder Bremen II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Werder Bremen II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0851,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.2924,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0851,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3062
},
"p_final": 0.3062,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0477,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1871,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.7076,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6772
}
},
"edge": 0.16,
"ev": 0.4606,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"market_prob": 0.3044,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"p_final": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0182,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2078,
"ev": 0.5385,
"implied_prob": 0.3102,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1586569,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5385,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5385,
"implied_prob": 0.3102,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5385,
"implied_prob": 0.3102,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Werder Bremen II",
"home": "Eintracht Norderstedt"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.209573,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4606,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3536,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3861003861003861,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586569,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:01:34.201440+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Eintracht Norderstedt & Werder Bremen II!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Regionalliga Nord — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schöningen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | Phönix Lübeck | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 3 | Weiche Flensburg | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | VfB Oldenburg | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Hannover 96 II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Kickers Emden | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Eimsbütteler TV | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | VfB Lübeck | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | St. Pauli II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 14 | SSV Jeddeloh | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 16 | HSC Hannover | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Bremer SV | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | Todesfelde | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 11 | 33 | 16 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | VfB Oldenburg | 10 | 31 | 14 | +17 | 22 |
| 3 | Kickers Emden | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 18 |
| 4 | Weiche Flensburg | 10 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 10 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 23 |
| 6 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 11 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Hannover 96 II | 10 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 18 |
| 8 | Eimsbütteler TV | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 13 |
| 9 | St. Pauli II | 11 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Schöningen | 11 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 11 | Todesfelde | 11 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 8 |
| 12 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 11 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen II | 10 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | SSV Jeddeloh | 11 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 11 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | HSC Hannover | 11 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | VfB Lübeck | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 10 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
