The model missed the final outcome (Kickers Emden win 2–3).
The model had projected Bremer SV at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Bremer SV Kickers Emden ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer SV | 35.6% | 28.7% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.2% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Kickers Emden | 34.7% | 48.2% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kickers Emden's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Kickers Emden win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kickers Emden than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bremer SV by 13.5 percentage points (49.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bremer SV 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Kickers Emden 34.7%
- xG · Bremer SV 1.31 — Kickers Emden 1.29
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bremer SV 3.19 · Draw 3.95 · Kickers Emden 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Bremer SV 28.7% · Draw 23.2% · Kickers Emden 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bremer SV 3.19 · Draw 3.95 · Kickers Emden 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Bremer SV 28.7% · Draw 23.2% · Kickers Emden 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kickers Emden win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
11/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kickers Emden win · Bremer SV 2–3 Kickers Emden
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Kickers Emden",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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}
},
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"home_played": 6,
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"pick": "No",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:58:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 12:33:04",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
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{
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-29.6%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.0109,
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"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.2,
"text": "+19.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2316,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.2,
"text": "-23.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1921,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10172.89,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0258,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0154,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1353,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bremer SV",
"sort_key": 1796.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/3",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/3 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"alert_team": "Bremer SV",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.46,
"hero_label": "Kickers Emden",
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"market_team": "Kickers Emden",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Bremer SV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3313,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3313,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bremer SV at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bremer SV as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bremer SV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0258,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1353,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.46,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"steam_team": "Bremer SV",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3313,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3313,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bremer SV at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bremer SV as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bremer SV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0258,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1353,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bremer SV 1.31 xG vs Kickers Emden 1.29 \u2192 Bremer SV 35.6%",
"Market: Kickers Emden ~28.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Bremer SV odds \u2191 +3.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bremer SV, but the market has moved away from Bremer SV.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Bremer SV",
"market_prob": 28.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.46,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Kickers Emden",
"market_prob": 48.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.25,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.25,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Kickers Emden",
"market_prob_pct": 48.16,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bremer SV"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kickers Emden\u0027s win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bremer SV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bremer SV 1.31 xG vs Kickers Emden 1.29 \u2192 Bremer SV 35.6%",
"Market: Kickers Emden ~28.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Bremer SV odds \u2191 +3.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bremer SV, but the market has moved away from Bremer SV.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.46,
"hero_label": "Kickers Emden",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Bremer SV odds lengthened \u2191 +3.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bremer SV has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kickers Emden than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Bremer SV \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Kickers Emden than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Bremer SV has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Bremer SV \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Kickers Emden more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Bremer SV has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Kickers Emden",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kickers Emden higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.96,
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bremer SV",
"market_prob_pct": 28.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.49,
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.46,
"edge_pp": -13.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kickers Emden",
"market_prob_pct": 48.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bremer SV \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kickers Emden (28.7%).",
"Bremer SV odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.9%, 1/3) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bremer SV, Market \u2192 Kickers Emden, while Bremer SV odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
}
],
"books_total": 3,
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.19,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Bremer SV (3.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Movement is modest or fragmented \u2014 treat as tracking rather than strong steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.19",
"3.13",
"3.07"
],
"display": "3.24 \u2192 3.07 \u2192 3.19",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Bremer SV",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.24"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.19"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.07,
3.19
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.19"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.07,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bremer SV",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.19,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"open_odds": 3.07,
"summary": "Market moved away from Bremer SV while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bremer SV",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"current_odds": 3.19,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"open_odds": 3.07,
"pick_team": "Bremer SV",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Bremer SV",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kickers Emden",
"away_team_id": 12804,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12804.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kickers Emden",
"away_team_public_id": "0WdUIyli0GtNra",
"away_team_slug": "kickers-emden",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1586536,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Bremer SV",
"home_team_id": 1630,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1630.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bremer SV",
"home_team_public_id": "5GfBb71kLUM9xf",
"home_team_slug": "bremer-sv",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Nord",
"league_id": 84,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/84.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Nord",
"league_public_id": "1JYCcZ4RDo7bzB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3bpOfp5Ligk2Hj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4792,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.2073,
"implied_prob": 0.4816,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4816,
"draw": 0.2316,
"home": 0.2868
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4172
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.2316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4816,
"draw": 0.2316,
"home": 0.2868
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2493
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2689,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4816,
"draw": 0.2316,
"home": 0.2868
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3054
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.179,
"ev": -0.3402,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": 0.0436,
"ev": 0.1723,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": 0.0425,
"ev": 0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1066,
"alpha_yes": 0.1466,
"best_no_odd": 2.62,
"best_yes_odd": 1.41,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1025,
"edge_yes": -0.1025,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1921,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0587,
"ev_yes": -0.2316,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1082,
"implied_no": 0.3525,
"implied_yes": 0.6475,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1066,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3634
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1466,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.6475,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6325
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3634,
"p_final_yes": 0.6325,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.19,
"alpha_under": 0.1382,
"best_over_odd": 1.46,
"best_under_odd": 2.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1551,
"edge_under": 0.1551,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2963,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1375,
"ev_under": 0.3313,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"implied_over": 0.6371,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6368,
"implied_under": 0.3629,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3632,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6074
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3846
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6074,
"p_final_under": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3313,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3313,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3313,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3313,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3313,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bremer SV at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bremer SV as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bremer SV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bremer SV, but the model still strongly favours Bremer SV.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0258,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1353,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bremer SV"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0109,
"market_prob": 0.3525,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1066,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3634
},
"p_final": 0.3634,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0587,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1466,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.6475,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6325
}
},
"edge": 0.1025,
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3632,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6074
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1551,
"ev": 0.3313,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1586536,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3313,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3525,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kickers Emden",
"home": "Bremer SV"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.120129,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3313,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0258,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31347962382445144,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1353,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586536,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:58:30.157881+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Regionalliga Nord — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schöningen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | Phönix Lübeck | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 3 | Weiche Flensburg | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | VfB Oldenburg | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Hannover 96 II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Kickers Emden | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Eimsbütteler TV | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | VfB Lübeck | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | St. Pauli II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 14 | SSV Jeddeloh | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 16 | HSC Hannover | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Bremer SV | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | Todesfelde | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 11 | 33 | 16 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | VfB Oldenburg | 10 | 31 | 14 | +17 | 22 |
| 3 | Kickers Emden | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 18 |
| 4 | Weiche Flensburg | 10 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 10 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 23 |
| 6 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 11 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Hannover 96 II | 10 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 18 |
| 8 | Eimsbütteler TV | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 13 |
| 9 | St. Pauli II | 11 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Schöningen | 11 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 11 | Todesfelde | 11 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 8 |
| 12 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 11 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen II | 10 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | SSV Jeddeloh | 11 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 11 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | HSC Hannover | 11 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | VfB Lübeck | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 10 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
