AI correctly predicted the Managua win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Managua Managua ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managua | 48.3% | 73.8% | -25.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 16.3% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Rancho Santana | 23.3% | 9.9% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Managua's win probability at 73.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 25.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Managua win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Managua attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Managua higher (73.8% vs model 48.3%, 25.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Managua win 2–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Managua 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Rancho Santana 23.3%
- xG · Managua 1.57 — Rancho Santana 1.03
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Managua 1.22 · Draw 5.52 · Rancho Santana 9.04
- Implied 1X2 · Managua 73.8% · Draw 16.3% · Rancho Santana 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Managua 1.22 · Draw 5.52 · Rancho Santana 9.04
- Implied 1X2 · Managua 73.8% · Draw 16.3% · Rancho Santana 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Managua win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Nicaragua — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | Jalapa | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Walter Ferretti | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 5 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | San Marcos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H Export | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 9 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
| 10 | Matagalpa | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
