The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Bandırmaspor at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Bandırmaspor Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarıyer | 32.9% | 39.4% | -6.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.6% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Bandırmaspor | 37.5% | 32.0% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sarıyer's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sarıyer. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Bandırmaspor; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bandırmaspor by 6.5 percentage points (44.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sarıyer 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Bandırmaspor 37.6%
- xG · Sarıyer 1.25 — Bandırmaspor 1.35
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sarıyer 2.42 · Draw 3.33 · Bandırmaspor 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Sarıyer 39.4% · Draw 28.6% · Bandırmaspor 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sarıyer 2.42 · Draw 3.33 · Bandırmaspor 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Sarıyer 39.4% · Draw 28.6% · Bandırmaspor 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sarıyer 1–1 Bandırmaspor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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{
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{
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:00:54",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 16:31:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sar\u0131yer",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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}
]
},
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"model_prob": 0.482,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+4.1%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
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"no": {
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},
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
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"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0218,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1196,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"alert_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.54,
"hero_label": "Sar\u0131yer",
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"market_team": "Sar\u0131yer",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1195,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Band\u0131rmaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Band\u0131rmaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Band\u0131rmaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585755 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1196,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.54,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"steam_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1195,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Band\u0131rmaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Band\u0131rmaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Band\u0131rmaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585755 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1196,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sar\u0131yer 1.25 xG vs Band\u0131rmaspor 1.35 \u2192 Band\u0131rmaspor 37.5%",
"Market: Sar\u0131yer ~32.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Band\u0131rmaspor \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Band\u0131rmaspor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.54,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Sar\u0131yer",
"market_prob": 39.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.99,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"market_prob": 31.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.65,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.55,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.55,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sar\u0131yer",
"market_prob_pct": 39.39,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Band\u0131rmaspor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sar\u0131yer\u0027s win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Band\u0131rmaspor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sar\u0131yer 1.25 xG vs Band\u0131rmaspor 1.35 \u2192 Band\u0131rmaspor 37.5%",
"Market: Sar\u0131yer ~32.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Band\u0131rmaspor \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Band\u0131rmaspor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.54,
"hero_label": "Sar\u0131yer",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Band\u0131rmaspor odds shortened \u2193 -15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Band\u0131rmaspor, with odds shortening by 15.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sar\u0131yer. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Band\u0131rmaspor \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sar\u0131yer. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Band\u0131rmaspor, with odds shortening by 15.4%.",
"Buying interest on Band\u0131rmaspor \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sar\u0131yer above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Band\u0131rmaspor has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 15.4%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sar\u0131yer",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sar\u0131yer higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.54,
"edge_pp": -6.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sar\u0131yer",
"market_prob_pct": 39.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.99,
"edge_pp": 0.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.55,
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 31.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Band\u0131rmaspor \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sar\u0131yer (32.0%).",
"However, Band\u0131rmaspor has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.4%, 8/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Band\u0131rmaspor, Market \u2192 Sar\u0131yer, Recent sharp money \u2192 Band\u0131rmaspor.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.32,
"closing_odds": 2.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.32,
"entry_odds": 2.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Band\u0131rmaspor (15.4%, 8/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.25",
"3.00",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.81 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.81"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
2.98,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Band\u0131rmaspor \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Band\u0131rmaspor \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bandrmaspor",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"away_team_id": 3584,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3584.webp",
"away_team_name": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"away_team_public_id": "3D8rB2dUlvlW6f",
"away_team_slug": "bandrmaspor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1585755,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Sar\u0131yer",
"home_team_id": 3605,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3605.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sar\u0131yer",
"home_team_public_id": "3uQwbsql5P8zFM",
"home_team_slug": "saryer",
"ht.home_team_slug": "saryer",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "1. Lig Turki",
"league_id": 204,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/204.webp",
"league_name": "1. Lig Turki",
"league_public_id": "23W8qlNU2zpmgH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 17:00:00",
"public_id": "4Stk2EutPgspxH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Istanbul",
"venue_name": "Yusuf Ziya Onis"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4123,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3199,
"draw": 0.2862,
"home": 0.3939
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3429
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2958,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0375,
"implied_prob": 0.2862,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3199,
"draw": 0.2862,
"home": 0.3939
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.289
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.406,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1108,
"implied_prob": 0.3939,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3199,
"draw": 0.2862,
"home": 0.3939
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3674
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0401,
"ev": 0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0845,
"ev": -0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2203,
"alpha_yes": 0.2203,
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0455,
"edge_yes": 0.0455,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1031,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0669,
"implied_no": 0.5005,
"implied_yes": 0.4995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4901
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5099
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4901,
"p_final_yes": 0.5099,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2233,
"alpha_under": 0.2456,
"best_over_odd": 2.16,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0365,
"edge_under": -0.0365,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0411,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0567,
"ev_under": -0.1142,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0887,
"implied_over": 0.4455,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4453,
"implied_under": 0.5545,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5547,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4535
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2456,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4535,
"p_final_under": 0.5457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1195,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0411,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0411,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1195,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Band\u0131rmaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Band\u0131rmaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Band\u0131rmaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1585755 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Band\u0131rmaspor).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1196,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0411,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Band\u0131rmaspor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0099,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4901
},
"p_final": 0.5099,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0669,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5099
}
},
"edge": 0.0455,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.4995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4453,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2233,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4535
},
"p_final": 0.4535,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0567,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2456,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5457
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0365,
"ev": 0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1585755,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0411,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Band\u0131rmaspor",
"home": "Sar\u0131yer"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3199,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1196,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585755,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:56.189741+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
1. Lig Turki — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | 76 Iğdır Belediyespor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Sarıyer | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mardin BB | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Muğlaspor | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Pendikspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | Manisa BBSK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | BB Bodrumspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Sivasspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Ümraniyespor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Erokspor | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | İstanbulspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Van BB | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | Kayserispor | 8 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 8 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Antalyaspor | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 7 | 76 Iğdır Belediyespor | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Manisa BBSK | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Sarıyer | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Pendikspor | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mardin BB | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 13 | Sivasspor | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Muğlaspor | 8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 | Van BB | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | BB Bodrumspor | 8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | İstanbulspor | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Ümraniyespor | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | Erokspor | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 |
