The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Carlisle at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Carlisle Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 39.0% | 48.2% | -9.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Forest Green Rovers | 31.5% | 27.9% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Carlisle's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Carlisle. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Carlisle; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Carlisle by 9.3 percentage points (48.3% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Carlisle 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Forest Green Rovers 31.5%
- xG · Carlisle 1.38 — Forest Green Rovers 1.22
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Carlisle 1.97 · Draw 3.98 · Forest Green Rovers 3.41
- Implied 1X2 · Carlisle 48.2% · Draw 23.9% · Forest Green Rovers 27.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Carlisle 1.97 · Draw 3.98 · Forest Green Rovers 3.41
- Implied 1X2 · Carlisle 48.2% · Draw 23.9% · Forest Green Rovers 27.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Carlisle 1–1 Forest Green Rovers
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"prob": 7.6
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{
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
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{
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{
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"prob": 9.1
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-26.2%"
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"featured": true,
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.6,
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"tier": "best",
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"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0123,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2323,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Carlisle",
"sort_key": 5209.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"alert_team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.28,
"hero_label": "Carlisle",
"market_prob_pct": 48.2,
"market_team": "Carlisle",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Carlisle",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2323,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.28,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"steam_team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2323,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carlisle 1.38 xG vs Forest Green Rovers 1.22 \u2192 Carlisle 39.0%",
"Market: Carlisle ~48.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Forest Green Rovers \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Carlisle, but sharp money moved toward Forest Green Rovers.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.28,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Carlisle",
"market_prob": 48.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.61,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Forest Green Rovers",
"market_prob": 27.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.15,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Carlisle",
"market_prob_pct": 48.25,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Forest Green Rovers"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Carlisle\u0027s win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Carlisle",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Carlisle 1.38 xG vs Forest Green Rovers 1.22 \u2192 Carlisle 39.0%",
"Market: Carlisle ~48.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Forest Green Rovers \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Carlisle, but sharp money moved toward Forest Green Rovers.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.28,
"hero_label": "Carlisle",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Forest Green Rovers odds shortened \u2193 -2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Forest Green Rovers, with odds shortening by 2.9%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Carlisle. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Carlisle. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Forest Green Rovers, with odds shortening by 2.9%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Carlisle above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Forest Green Rovers has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.9%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Carlisle",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Carlisle higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.28,
"edge_pp": -9.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Carlisle",
"market_prob_pct": 48.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.66,
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.61,
"edge_pp": 3.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Forest Green Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 27.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Carlisle (48.2%).",
"Forest Green Rovers has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.9%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Carlisle, Market \u2192 Carlisle, Recent sharp money \u2192 Forest Green Rovers.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 66h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Forest Green Rovers (swing 3.42 \u2192 2.89 \u2192 3.30) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.41",
"3.35",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.89 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 66h 10m",
"pick_team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.41,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,1.6 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.41"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Forest Green Rovers while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Forest Green Rovers",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_team_name": "Forest Green Rovers",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "forest-green",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Forest Green Rovers",
"away_team_id": 1378,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1378.webp",
"away_team_name": "Forest Green Rovers",
"away_team_public_id": "1Y8lq5UgdL2ic5",
"away_team_slug": "forest-green",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585223,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Carlisle",
"home_team_id": 1371,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1371.webp",
"home_team_name": "Carlisle",
"home_team_public_id": "3VamZZAUD902ho",
"home_team_slug": "carlisle",
"ht.home_team_slug": "carlisle",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kebangsaan Inggeris",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kebangsaan Inggeris",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2o5O2RA49xZ4Sg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Carlisle",
"venue_name": "Brunton Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0145,
"implied_prob": 0.2787,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2787,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4825
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.289
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": 0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.2388,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2787,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4825
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2543
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5165,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0479,
"ev": -0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2787,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4825
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4345
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": 0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0442,
"ev": 0.1757,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.1179,
"ev": -0.2324,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1554,
"alpha_yes": 0.2137,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0915,
"edge_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0467,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"implied_no": 0.3645,
"implied_yes": 0.6355,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3791
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6351,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3791,
"p_final_yes": 0.6156,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1978,
"alpha_under": 0.1439,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.485,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1371,
"edge_under": 0.1371,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1249,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0398,
"implied_over": 0.6191,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6158,
"implied_under": 0.3809,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3842,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.6158,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5893
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.3842,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4035
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5893,
"p_final_under": 0.4035,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Carlisle at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Carlisle as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Carlisle",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Forest Green Rovers, but the model still strongly favours Carlisle.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2323,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0479,
"ev": -0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Carlisle"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0142,
"market_prob": 0.3649,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3791
},
"p_final": 0.3791,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0467,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.6351,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.1856,
"implied_prob": 0.3645,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"market_prob": 0.3842,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.6158,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5893
},
"p_final": 0.4035,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0398,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.3842,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4035
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1371,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585223,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1856,
"implied_prob": 0.3645,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1856,
"implied_prob": 0.3645,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Forest Green Rovers",
"home": "Carlisle"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2323,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585223,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:44:07.911185+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kebangsaan Inggeris — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
