The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected FC Saarbrücken at 47.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 FC Saarbrücken Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 25.8% | 34.0% | -8.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.8% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| FC Saarbrücken | 47.1% | 39.2% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Preußen Münster's win probability at 34.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.8%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Preußen Münster. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.86) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Saarbrücken by 8.3 percentage points (55.4% vs model 47.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Preußen Münster 25.7% · Draw 27.1% · FC Saarbrücken 47.1%
- xG · Preußen Münster 1.19 — FC Saarbrücken 1.67
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Preußen Münster 2.80 · Draw 3.56 · FC Saarbrücken 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Preußen Münster 34.0% · Draw 26.8% · FC Saarbrücken 39.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Preußen Münster 2.80 · Draw 3.56 · FC Saarbrücken 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Preußen Münster 34.0% · Draw 26.8% · FC Saarbrücken 39.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
58/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Preußen Münster 3–3 FC Saarbrücken
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"away_xg": 1.67,
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}
},
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"away_score_rate": 81.2,
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"no_prob": 42.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
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},
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"scores": [
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 72.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 14.6,
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"market": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken Win",
"model_prob": 47.2,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 17:01:29",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:32:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "0-2",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"edge_pp": 0.9,
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+5.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1126,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-11.3%"
},
"featured": true,
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{
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1008,
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"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0329,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.3,
"text": "+3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0329,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 54.5,
"sort_key": 10029.61,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.029,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.029,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4711,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"sort_key": 5223.2,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"alert_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.28,
"hero_label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"market_prob_pct": 39.2,
"market_team": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"model_prob_pct": 47.1,
"model_team": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1449,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 47.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (47.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584001 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4711,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.28,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.67,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 24.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.67,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.67 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +24%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"steam_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1449,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 47.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (47.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584001 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4711,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster 1.19 xG vs FC Saarbr\u00fccken 1.67 \u2192 FC Saarbr\u00fccken 47.1%",
"Market: FC Saarbr\u00fccken ~39.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.28,
"fair_prob": 25.75,
"label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.38,
"fair_prob": 27.14,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.9,
"fair_prob": 47.11,
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob": 39.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.3,
"fair_prob": 58.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 42.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.75,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"market_prob_pct": 34.03,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster\u0027s win probability at 34.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.8%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 47.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster 1.19 xG vs FC Saarbr\u00fccken 1.67 \u2192 FC Saarbr\u00fccken 47.1%",
"Market: FC Saarbr\u00fccken ~39.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.28,
"hero_label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster odds lengthened \u2191 +4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster (\u2191 +4.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 20.0 pp (at 47.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 20.0,
"max_prob_pct": 47.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.28,
"edge_pp": -8.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"market_prob_pct": 34.03,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.38,
"edge_pp": 0.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.9,
"edge_pp": 7.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"market_prob_pct": 39.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Saarbr\u00fccken (39.2%).",
"Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.0%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.71,
"closing_odds": 2.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.71,
"entry_odds": 2.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.65",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 28m",
"pick_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.8,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-saarbrucken",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"away_team_id": 1639,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1639.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"away_team_public_id": "4t9FKPbQWcWMHn",
"away_team_slug": "fc-saarbrucken",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1584001,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"home_team_id": 1313,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1313.webp",
"home_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
"home_team_public_id": "3zoi0v2eRiuueS",
"home_team_slug": "preuen-munster",
"ht.home_team_slug": "preuen-munster",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 17:00:00",
"public_id": "0XjCy7qnOqwtHl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Munster",
"venue_name": "Preussenstadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3966,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": 0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3921,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3921,
"draw": 0.2676,
"home": 0.3403
},
"model_prob": 0.4711,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2983,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3921,
"draw": 0.2676,
"home": 0.3403
},
"model_prob": 0.2714,
"p_final": 0.2688
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3941,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1386,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3921,
"draw": 0.2676,
"home": 0.3403
},
"model_prob": 0.2574,
"p_final": 0.3076
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": 0.0596,
"ev": 0.1449,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.4711
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2714
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0997,
"ev": -0.2792,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.2574
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.266,
"alpha_yes": 0.3657,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.033,
"edge_yes": -0.033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.05,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0588,
"ev_yes": -0.1126,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0982,
"implied_no": 0.387,
"implied_yes": 0.613,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.266,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.3955
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3657,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.6012
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3955,
"p_final_yes": 0.6012,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.367,
"alpha_under": 0.3336,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.175,
"edge_over": -0.0294,
"edge_under": 0.0294,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1008,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"ev_under": 0.0329,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0555,
"implied_over": 0.5744,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5762,
"implied_under": 0.4256,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4238,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.367,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5762,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3336,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.4238,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4342
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5647,
"p_final_under": 0.4342,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.86,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1449,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.05,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1449,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Saarbr\u00fccken at 47.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Saarbr\u00fccken as the value side (47.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side FC Saarbr\u00fccken \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.73 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584001 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.73 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Saarbr\u00fccken).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"strength_delta": 0.5,
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"xg_separation": {
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
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},
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},
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"side_label": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken"
},
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}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
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"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Saarbr\u00fccken",
"home": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster"
},
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"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1584001,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T17:01:31.284416+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
3. Liga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
