The model missed the final outcome (Amkar win 0–1).
The model had projected Dinamo Stavropol at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Dinamo Stavropol Amkar ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Stavropol | 36.6% | 25.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.6% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Amkar | 33.8% | 49.5% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Amkar's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Amkar win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Amkar than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Dinamo Stavropol; match finished Amkar
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dinamo Stavropol by 15.7 percentage points (52.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dinamo Stavropol 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Amkar 33.8%
- xG · Dinamo Stavropol 1.33 — Amkar 1.27
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dinamo Stavropol 3.44 · Draw 3.62 · Amkar 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Stavropol 25.9% · Draw 24.6% · Amkar 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Dinamo Stavropol 3.44 · Draw 3.62 · Amkar 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Stavropol 25.9% · Draw 24.6% · Amkar 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Amkar win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
7/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Amkar win · Dinamo Stavropol 0–1 Amkar
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE5",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0193,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 34.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10308.07,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0164,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0164,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"sort_key": 1795.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/2",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"alert_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.72,
"hero_label": "Amkar",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"market_team": "Amkar",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dinamo Stavropol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dinamo Stavropol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/2",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.72,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.72,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"steam_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dinamo Stavropol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dinamo Stavropol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dinamo Stavropol 1.33 xG vs Amkar 1.27 \u2192 Dinamo Stavropol 36.6%",
"Market: Amkar ~25.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Dinamo Stavropol odds \u2191 +4.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dinamo Stavropol, but the market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.69,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"market_prob": 25.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.72,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Amkar",
"market_prob": 49.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.37,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.37,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.17,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.17,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Amkar",
"market_prob_pct": 49.49,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Dinamo Stavropol"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Amkar\u0027s win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.72,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dinamo Stavropol 1.33 xG vs Amkar 1.27 \u2192 Dinamo Stavropol 36.6%",
"Market: Amkar ~25.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Dinamo Stavropol odds \u2191 +4.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Dinamo Stavropol, but the market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.72,
"hero_label": "Amkar",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Dinamo Stavropol odds lengthened \u2191 +4.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Dinamo Stavropol has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Amkar than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Dinamo Stavropol \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Amkar than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Dinamo Stavropol has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Dinamo Stavropol \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Amkar more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Dinamo Stavropol has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (2/2) supports the current market view on Dinamo Stavropol."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.72,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Amkar",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Amkar higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.69,
"edge_pp": 10.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.03,
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.72,
"edge_pp": -15.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Amkar",
"market_prob_pct": 49.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Dinamo Stavropol \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Amkar (25.9%).",
"Dinamo Stavropol odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.1%, 2/2) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dinamo Stavropol, Market \u2192 Amkar, while Dinamo Stavropol odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.52,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Dinamo Stavropol (4.1%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (2/2).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.52",
"3.45",
"3.38"
],
"display": "3.52 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.52",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"pick_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.52"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.52"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.38,
3.44,
3.52
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.52"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.52"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.38,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.52,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"open_odds": 3.38,
"summary": "Market moved away from Dinamo Stavropol while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"current_odds": 3.52,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"open_odds": 3.38,
"pick_team": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "amkar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Amkar",
"away_team_id": 1076,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1076.webp",
"away_team_name": "Amkar",
"away_team_public_id": "1qsFNXDmF4J2hN",
"away_team_slug": "amkar",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1583932,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"home_team_id": 6796,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6796.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"home_team_public_id": "4QCgjARhZqrHm0",
"home_team_slug": "dinamo-stavropol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dinamo-stavropol",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Perak",
"league_id": 1026,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1026.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Perak",
"league_public_id": "5Xf7ejuZOgvwSn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5tNAujvHzGAluJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Essentuki",
"venue_name": "Essentuki Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4584,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0721,
"ev": -0.239,
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
"draw": 0.2461,
"home": 0.259
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4228
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2773,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.2461,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
"draw": 0.2461,
"home": 0.259
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2601
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2518,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0164,
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
"draw": 0.2461,
"home": 0.259
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2859
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.218,
"ev": -0.3924,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": 0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0753,
"ev": 0.259,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0992,
"alpha_yes": 0.1364,
"best_no_odd": 2.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1417,
"edge_yes": -0.1417,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3423,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0457,
"ev_yes": -0.2751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_no": 0.3133,
"implied_yes": 0.6867,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0992,
"best_odd": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3274
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1364,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6867,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6674
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3274,
"p_final_yes": 0.6674,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1203,
"alpha_under": 0.0875,
"best_over_odd": 1.32,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.32,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.88,
"edge_over": -0.2037,
"edge_under": 0.2037,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3638,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1272,
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"implied_over": 0.6857,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6857,
"implied_under": 0.3143,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3143,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1203,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.6857,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6612
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0875,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3143,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3321
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6612,
"p_final_under": 0.3321,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dinamo Stavropol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dinamo Stavropol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dinamo Stavropol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Dinamo Stavropol, but the model still strongly favours Dinamo Stavropol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0164,
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dinamo Stavropol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0992,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.3133,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0992,
"best_odd": 2.915,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3274
},
"p_final": 0.3274,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0457,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1364,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6867,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6674
}
},
"edge": 0.1417,
"ev": 0.3423,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0875,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.3143,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1203,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.6857,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6612
},
"p_final": 0.3321,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0875,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3143,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3321
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2037,
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3143,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1583932,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4918,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3423,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3423,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Amkar",
"home": "Dinamo Stavropol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.156927,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3143,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583932,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:55:09.185347+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Perak — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Amkar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Irtysh Omsk | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Dinamo Moskva II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 9 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 | Amkar | 9 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 10 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 | Irtysh Omsk | 10 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
| 6 | Dinamo Stavropol | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 7 | Dinamo Moskva II | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 7 |
