The model missed the final outcome (Rodina Moskva II win 3–1).
The model had projected Mashuk-KMV at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Mashuk-KMV Rodina Moskva II ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva II | 34.2% | 54.2% | -20.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Mashuk-KMV | 36.1% | 20.2% | +15.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Rodina Moskva II's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Rodina Moskva II win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Rodina Moskva II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mashuk-KMV by 20.0 percentage points (56.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Mashuk-KMV 36.1%
- xG · Rodina Moskva II 1.28 — Mashuk-KMV 1.32
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rodina Moskva II 1.66 · Draw 3.52 · Mashuk-KMV 4.45
- Implied 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 54.2% · Draw 25.6% · Mashuk-KMV 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rodina Moskva II 1.66 · Draw 3.52 · Mashuk-KMV 4.45
- Implied 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 54.2% · Draw 25.6% · Mashuk-KMV 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rodina Moskva II win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
53/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
18/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rodina Moskva II win · Rodina Moskva II 3–1 Mashuk-KMV
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"has_data": true,
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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{
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1102,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1988,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1102,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10099.18,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0075,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"sort_key": 5206.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/2",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"alert_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 20.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.97,
"hero_label": "Rodina Moskva II",
"market_prob_pct": 20.2,
"market_team": "Rodina Moskva II",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mashuk-KMV \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "2/2",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.97,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"steam_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mashuk-KMV \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rodina Moskva II 1.28 xG vs Mashuk-KMV 1.32 \u2192 Mashuk-KMV 36.1%",
"Market: Rodina Moskva II ~20.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Mashuk-KMV \u2193 -4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Mashuk-KMV, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -19.97,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Rodina Moskva II",
"market_prob": 54.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.89,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob": 20.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Rodina Moskva II",
"market_prob_pct": 54.21,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mashuk-KMV"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Rodina Moskva II\u0027s win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Mashuk-KMV \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+15.9 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rodina Moskva II 1.28 xG vs Mashuk-KMV 1.32 \u2192 Mashuk-KMV 36.1%",
"Market: Rodina Moskva II ~20.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Mashuk-KMV \u2193 -4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Mashuk-KMV, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.97,
"hero_label": "Rodina Moskva II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mashuk-KMV odds shortened \u2193 -4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Mashuk-KMV, with odds shortening by 4.2%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rodina Moskva II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Mashuk-KMV \u2014 odds shortened by 4.2%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Rodina Moskva II than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Mashuk-KMV, with odds shortening by 4.2%.",
"Buying interest on Mashuk-KMV \u2014 odds shortened by 4.2%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Rodina Moskva II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Mashuk-KMV has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.2%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (2/2) supports the current market view on Mashuk-KMV."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rodina Moskva II",
"largest_gap_pp": -20.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Rodina Moskva II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 20.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -19.97,
"edge_pp": -19.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rodina Moskva II",
"market_prob_pct": 54.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.08,
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.89,
"edge_pp": 15.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mashuk-KMV",
"market_prob_pct": 20.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Mashuk-KMV \u2014 odds shortened by 4.2%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rodina Moskva II (20.2%).",
"Mashuk-KMV has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.2%, 2/2).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mashuk-KMV, Market \u2192 Rodina Moskva II, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mashuk-KMV.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.53,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Mashuk-KMV (4.2%) \u2014 2/2 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.73",
"4.59",
"4.45"
],
"display": "4.73 \u2192 4.45 \u2192 4.53",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 43m",
"pick_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.53"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.73,
4.45,
4.53
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.73"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.53"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.73,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.53,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"open_odds": 4.73,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"current_odds": 4.53,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"open_odds": 4.73,
"pick_team": "Mashuk-KMV",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 20.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mashuk-kmv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"away_team_id": 6814,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6814.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mashuk-KMV",
"away_team_public_id": "3AQlIdLQHHn0IT",
"away_team_slug": "mashuk-kmv",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1583860,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Rodina Moskva II",
"home_team_id": 19453,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19453.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rodina Moskva II",
"home_team_public_id": "56ifbgs6ECkwM2",
"home_team_slug": "rodina-moskva-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rodina-moskva-ii",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Emas",
"league_id": 1025,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1025.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Emas",
"league_public_id": "0tRT876TALDfdr",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "51GIsnPJxmY6yq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Moscow",
"venue_name": "Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1524,
"best_odd": 4.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2022,
"draw": 0.2557,
"home": 0.5421
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2264
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.2557,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2022,
"draw": 0.2557,
"home": 0.5421
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2672
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4202,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0839,
"ev": -0.2394,
"implied_prob": 0.5421,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2022,
"draw": 0.2557,
"home": 0.5421
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4582
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.45,
"edge": 0.1362,
"ev": 0.6062,
"implied_prob": 0.2247,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": 0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.26,
"ev": -0.4316,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1115,
"alpha_yes": 0.1533,
"best_no_odd": 2.44,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0766,
"edge_yes": -0.0766,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1102,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0656,
"ev_yes": -0.1988,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1035,
"implied_no": 0.3784,
"implied_yes": 0.6216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1115,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6099
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3869,
"p_final_yes": 0.6099,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1374,
"alpha_under": 0.1,
"best_over_odd": 1.46,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1378,
"edge_under": 0.1378,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2963,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1228,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0623,
"implied_over": 0.6198,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6198,
"implied_under": 0.3802,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6009
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.394
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6009,
"p_final_under": 0.394,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mashuk-KMV at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mashuk-KMV as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mashuk-KMV",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mashuk-KMV \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583860 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Mashuk-KMV), but pricing still diverges by 20.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mashuk-KMV"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1115,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.3784,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1115,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"p_final": 0.3869,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0656,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6099
}
},
"edge": 0.0766,
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6009
},
"p_final": 0.394,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0623,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.394
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1378,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1583860,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mashuk-KMV",
"home": "Rodina Moskva II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.074284,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2022,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583860,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:01:07.883227+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua A Rusia - Divisyen A Emas — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 8 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
