AI correctly predicted the San Francisco FC win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 San Francisco FC San Francisco FC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tauro FC | 33.3% | 36.1% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.8% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| San Francisco FC | 37.1% | 32.2% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (San Francisco FC win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (San Francisco FC win 1–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tauro FC 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · San Francisco FC 37.0%
- xG · Tauro FC 1.26 — San Francisco FC 1.34
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tauro FC 2.58 · Draw 2.80 · San Francisco FC 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Tauro FC 35.5% · Draw 32.7% · San Francisco FC 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tauro FC 2.57 · Draw 2.92 · San Francisco FC 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Tauro FC 36.1% · Draw 31.8% · San Francisco FC 32.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Francisco FC win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Francisco FC win · Tauro FC 1–3 San Francisco FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.0146,
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},
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},
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.9,
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"hero_edge_pp": 4.87,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Francisco FC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Francisco FC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Francisco FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality",
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.067,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.87,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Francisco FC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Francisco FC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Francisco FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.067,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tauro FC 1.26 xG vs San Francisco FC 1.34 \u2192 San Francisco FC 37.1%",
"Market: Tauro FC ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -6.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Francisco FC, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Tauro FC",
"market_prob": 36.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.12,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "San Francisco FC",
"market_prob": 32.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "San Francisco FC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.19,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Francisco FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tauro FC 1.26 xG vs San Francisco FC 1.34 \u2192 San Francisco FC 37.1%",
"Market: Tauro FC ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -6.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Francisco FC, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.87,
"hero_label": "San Francisco FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -6.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 6.3%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 6.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 6.3%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 6.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "San Francisco FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.76,
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tauro FC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.12,
"edge_pp": -2.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.87,
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "San Francisco FC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 6.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tauro FC (32.2%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -6.3%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Francisco FC, Market \u2192 Tauro FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.72,
"closing_odds": 2.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.72,
"entry_odds": 2.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Draw (6.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.00",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 44m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
2.92,
2.8,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,12.6 37.3,18.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/8 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-francisco-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Francisco FC",
"away_team_id": 2887,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2887.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Francisco FC",
"away_team_public_id": "1foemR5UTf342C",
"away_team_slug": "san-francisco-fc",
"country_code": "PA",
"country_display_name": "Panama",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pa.svg",
"country_id": 124,
"country_name": "Panama",
"fixture_id": 1583773,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Panama",
"home_team_display_name": "Tauro FC",
"home_team_id": 2885,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2885.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tauro FC",
"home_team_public_id": "5axxKdZGi6KfHv",
"home_team_slug": "tauro-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tauro-fc",
"league_country": "Panama",
"league_country_display": "Panama",
"league_display_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_id": 304,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/304.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_public_id": "5kIyybnJP7RpfB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 01:30:00",
"public_id": "4gzmGUnG8enxNB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Panama City",
"venue_name": "Estadio Rommel Fernandez"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4171,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.3219,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3219,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.3607
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3422
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4355,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3219,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.3607
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3081
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4316,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3607,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3219,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.3607
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3489
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": 0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0465,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0556,
"ev": -0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.208,
"alpha_yes": 0.208,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0492,
"edge_yes": 0.0492,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.109,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_no": 0.5042,
"implied_yes": 0.4958,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.5055,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.505
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.495,
"p_final_yes": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2053,
"alpha_under": 0.2258,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0591,
"edge_under": -0.0591,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4229,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4236,
"implied_under": 0.5771,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5764,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4356
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2258,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5632
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4356,
"p_final_under": 0.5632,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Francisco FC at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Francisco FC as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Francisco FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours San Francisco FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
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"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Francisco FC"
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"no": {
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.012,
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"over": {
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},
"match_id": 1583773,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Tauro FC"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583773,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T01:29:17.572521+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Coclé | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Alianza FC | 16 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 27 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 25 |
| 5 | Tauro FC | 16 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
| 7 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Coclé | 16 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 11 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 8 |
