AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Universitario win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Deportivo Universitario Deportivo Universitario ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Universitario | 36.1% | 37.9% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.9% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| UMECIT FC | 34.2% | 31.3% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Deportivo Universitario win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Deportivo Universitario win 2–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Universitario 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · UMECIT FC 34.2%
- xG · Deportivo Universitario 1.32 — UMECIT FC 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Universitario 2.42 · Draw 2.97 · UMECIT FC 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Universitario 37.9% · Draw 30.9% · UMECIT FC 31.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Universitario 2.42 · Draw 2.97 · UMECIT FC 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Universitario 37.9% · Draw 30.9% · UMECIT FC 31.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Universitario win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1024,
"ev_available": true,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"text": "-4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Universitario",
"sort_key": 1788.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.0,
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"hero_edge_pp": 2.96,
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"market_prob_pct": 37.9,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Deportivo Universitario",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Universitario at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Universitario as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.96,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Universitario",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Universitario at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Universitario as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Universitario 1.32 xG vs UMECIT FC 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo Universitario 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo Universitario ~37.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Universitario +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Universitario with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.76,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Deportivo Universitario",
"market_prob": 37.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.96,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "UMECIT FC",
"market_prob": 31.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.59,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.59,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "UMECIT FC",
"market_prob_pct": 31.28,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Universitario"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Universitario",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Universitario \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Universitario 1.32 xG vs UMECIT FC 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo Universitario 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo Universitario ~37.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Universitario +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Universitario with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.96,
"hero_label": "UMECIT FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "UMECIT FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.76,
"edge_pp": -1.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Universitario",
"market_prob_pct": 37.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.21,
"edge_pp": -1.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.96,
"edge_pp": 2.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "UMECIT FC",
"market_prob_pct": 31.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Universitario (37.9%).",
"Deportivo Universitario \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.13,
"closing_odds": 2.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.13,
"entry_odds": 2.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Universitario",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Universitario",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "umecit",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UMECIT FC",
"away_team_id": 20788,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20788.webp",
"away_team_name": "UMECIT FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0aVEglS6fkVVZe",
"away_team_slug": "umecit",
"country_code": "PA",
"country_display_name": "Panama",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pa.svg",
"country_id": 124,
"country_name": "Panama",
"fixture_id": 1583772,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Panama",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Universitario",
"home_team_id": 2888,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2888.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Universitario",
"home_team_public_id": "4jHjoUNwt2XZUH",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-universitario",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-universitario",
"league_country": "Panama",
"league_country_display": "Panama",
"league_display_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_id": 304,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/304.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Paname\u00f1a de F\u00fatbol",
"league_public_id": "5kIyybnJP7RpfB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:15:00",
"public_id": "2Ecq7hccySaG19",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Universidad Latina"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.43,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.3128,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3128,
"draw": 0.3086,
"home": 0.3787
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3255
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.442,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3128,
"draw": 0.3086,
"home": 0.3787
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3033
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.438,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3128,
"draw": 0.3086,
"home": 0.3787
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3709
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0523,
"ev": -0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2141,
"alpha_yes": 0.1946,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.01,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0859,
"edge_yes": 0.0859,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1221,
"ev_yes": 0.0955,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0549,
"implied_no": 0.5409,
"implied_yes": 0.4591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5257
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4726
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5257,
"p_final_yes": 0.4726,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1529,
"alpha_under": 0.2102,
"best_over_odd": 2.52,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.475,
"edge_over": 0.0982,
"edge_under": -0.0982,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2146,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0512,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.119,
"implied_over": 0.3838,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3816,
"implied_under": 0.6162,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6184,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.397
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5973
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.397,
"p_final_under": 0.5973,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2146,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2146,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Universitario at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Universitario as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Universitario",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Universitario).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Universitario"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.455,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.545,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5257
},
"p_final": 0.4726,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0549,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4726
}
},
"edge": 0.0859,
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.3816,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.397
},
"p_final": 0.397,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0512,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5973
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0982,
"ev": 0.2146,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1583772,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2146,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4591,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UMECIT FC",
"home": "Deportivo Universitario"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.072406,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2146,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3787,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583772,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T23:14:12.316878+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Deportivo Universitario & UMECIT FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Coclé | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Alianza FC | 16 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 27 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 25 |
| 5 | Tauro FC | 16 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
| 7 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Coclé | 16 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 11 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 8 |