The model missed the final outcome (Veraguas United win 0–1).
The model had projected Union Coclé at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Union Coclé Veraguas United ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Coclé | 38.5% | 24.6% | +13.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.1% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Veraguas United | 31.9% | 47.4% | -15.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Veraguas United's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Veraguas United win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Veraguas United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Union Coclé; match finished Veraguas United
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Union Coclé by 15.4 percentage points (53.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Union Coclé 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Veraguas United 31.9%
- xG · Union Coclé 1.37 — Veraguas United 1.23
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Union Coclé 3.72 · Draw 3.26 · Veraguas United 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Union Coclé 24.6% · Draw 28.1% · Veraguas United 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Union Coclé 3.72 · Draw 3.26 · Veraguas United 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Union Coclé 24.6% · Draw 28.1% · Veraguas United 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Veraguas United win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Coclé | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | UMECIT FC | 16 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Alianza FC | 16 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 27 |
| 4 | Veraguas United | 16 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 25 |
| 5 | Tauro FC | 16 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
| 7 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Coclé | 16 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 11 | CD Árabe Unido | 16 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Herrera FC | 16 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 8 |
