AI correctly predicted the Čelik win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Čelik Čelik ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | 39.5% | 46.7% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.4% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Radnik Bijeljina | 31.0% | 23.9% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Čelik's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Čelik win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Čelik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Čelik higher (46.8% vs model 39.5%, 7.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Čelik win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Čelik 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Radnik Bijeljina 31.0%
- xG · Čelik 1.39 — Radnik Bijeljina 1.21
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Čelik 1.96 · Draw 3.12 · Radnik Bijeljina 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Čelik 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Radnik Bijeljina 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Čelik 1.96 · Draw 3.12 · Radnik Bijeljina 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Čelik 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Radnik Bijeljina 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Čelik win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
63/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Čelik win · Čelik 3–2 Radnik Bijeljina
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.0%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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},
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},
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
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"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010celik at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010celik as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010celik",
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side \u010celik \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582796 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.16,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "13/13",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.27,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"steam_team": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010celik at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010celik as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010celik",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side \u010celik \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582796 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.16,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010celik 1.39 xG vs Radnik Bijeljina 1.21 \u2192 \u010celik 39.5%",
"Market: \u010celik ~46.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Radnik Bijeljina \u2193 -19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010celik, but sharp money moved toward Radnik Bijeljina.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.27,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "\u010celik",
"market_prob": 46.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.15,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.12,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"market_prob": 23.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.85,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.85,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u010celik",
"market_prob_pct": 46.73,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Radnik Bijeljina"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u010celik\u0027s win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u010celik",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010celik 1.39 xG vs Radnik Bijeljina 1.21 \u2192 \u010celik 39.5%",
"Market: \u010celik ~46.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Radnik Bijeljina \u2193 -19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u010celik, but sharp money moved toward Radnik Bijeljina.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.27,
"hero_label": "\u010celik",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Radnik Bijeljina odds shortened \u2193 -19.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Radnik Bijeljina, with odds shortening by 19.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on \u010celik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Radnik Bijeljina \u2014 odds shortened by 19.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on \u010celik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Radnik Bijeljina, with odds shortening by 19.0%.",
"Buying interest on Radnik Bijeljina \u2014 odds shortened by 19.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices \u010celik above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Radnik Bijeljina has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 19.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Radnik Bijeljina."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "\u010celik",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u010celik higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.27,
"edge_pp": -7.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u010celik",
"market_prob_pct": 46.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.15,
"edge_pp": 0.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.12,
"edge_pp": 7.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"market_prob_pct": 23.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Radnik Bijeljina \u2014 odds shortened by 19.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u010celik (46.7%).",
"However, Radnik Bijeljina has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.0%, 13/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u010celik, Market \u2192 \u010celik, Recent sharp money \u2192 Radnik Bijeljina.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 38h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/13 books synchronized on Radnik Bijeljina (19.0% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.80",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.34 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 38h 2m",
"pick_team": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
3.83,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,8.3 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Radnik Bijeljina \u2193 -19.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Radnik Bijeljina \u2193 -19.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Radnik Bijeljina while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "radnik-bijeljina",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"away_team_id": 3359,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3359.webp",
"away_team_name": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"away_team_public_id": "0rLWfSc0wCCECC",
"away_team_slug": "radnik-bijeljina",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_display_name": "Bosnia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_id": 22,
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1582796,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "\u010celik",
"home_team_id": 3363,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3363.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u010celik",
"home_team_public_id": "5KG6K4t6TWDL1x",
"home_team_slug": "celik",
"ht.home_team_slug": "celik",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_country_display": "Bosnia",
"league_display_name": "Premijer Liga Bosnia",
"league_id": 315,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/315.webp",
"league_name": "Premijer Liga Bosnia",
"league_public_id": "5IIF10db3lKcAm",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "55ohTyaZiPZCq8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zenica",
"venue_name": "Bilino Polje"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.268,
"best_odd": 3.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.011,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2391,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4673
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2582
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2995,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2391,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4673
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5349,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0387,
"ev": -0.16,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2391,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4673
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4286
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.83,
"edge": 0.0492,
"ev": 0.1885,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.1153,
"ev": -0.2259,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.237,
"alpha_yes": 0.2154,
"best_no_odd": 1.86,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0585,
"edge_yes": 0.0585,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.15,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"ev_yes": 0.086,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0659,
"implied_no": 0.5155,
"implied_yes": 0.4845,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5158,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5018
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0659,
"implied_prob": 0.4842,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4969
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5018,
"p_final_yes": 0.4969,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.216,
"alpha_under": 0.2376,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0562,
"edge_under": -0.0562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0558,
"ev_under": -0.1401,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1042,
"implied_over": 0.4258,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4248,
"implied_under": 0.5742,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5752,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0558,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4371
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4371,
"p_final_under": 0.5616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1885,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u010celik at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u010celik as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u010celik",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side \u010celik \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1582796 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radnik Bijeljina, but the model still strongly favours \u010celik.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.16,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0387,
"ev": -0.16,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u010celik"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4842,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5158,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5018
},
"p_final": 0.4969,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0659,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0659,
"implied_prob": 0.4842,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4969
}
},
"edge": 0.0585,
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4845,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0124,
"market_prob": 0.4248,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0558,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4371
},
"p_final": 0.4371,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0558,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5616
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1582796,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4845,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.4845,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Radnik Bijeljina",
"home": "\u010celik"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049665,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4258,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.16,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1582796,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T18:02:11.288299+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Premijer Liga Bosnia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
