The model missed the final outcome (Correcaminos UAT win 1–0).
The model had projected CDS Tampico Madero at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 CDS Tampico Madero Correcaminos UAT ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correcaminos UAT | 28.8% | 42.3% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.2% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 41.9% | 32.5% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Correcaminos UAT's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.8%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Correcaminos UAT win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Correcaminos UAT than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned CDS Tampico Madero; match finished Correcaminos UAT
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on CDS Tampico Madero by 13.5 percentage points (55.4% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Correcaminos UAT 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · CDS Tampico Madero 41.9%
- xG · Correcaminos UAT 1.16 — CDS Tampico Madero 1.44
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Correcaminos UAT 2.25 · Draw 3.78 · CDS Tampico Madero 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Correcaminos UAT 42.3% · Draw 25.2% · CDS Tampico Madero 32.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Correcaminos UAT 2.25 · Draw 3.78 · CDS Tampico Madero 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Correcaminos UAT 42.3% · Draw 25.2% · CDS Tampico Madero 32.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Correcaminos UAT win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
11/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Correcaminos UAT win · Correcaminos UAT 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.44,
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 71.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 00:59:27",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 00:29:24",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-18.1%"
},
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},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
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},
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": 10.4,
"text": "+10.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1522,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 10093.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0581,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0581,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"sort_key": 10052.29,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.51,
"hero_label": "Correcaminos UAT",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"market_team": "Correcaminos UAT",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CDS Tampico Madero at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CDS Tampico Madero as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side CDS Tampico Madero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581433 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.51,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.51,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CDS Tampico Madero at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CDS Tampico Madero as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side CDS Tampico Madero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581433 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Correcaminos UAT 1.16 xG vs CDS Tampico Madero 1.44 \u2192 CDS Tampico Madero 41.9%",
"Market: Correcaminos UAT ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: CDS Tampico Madero odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CDS Tampico Madero, but the market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.51,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Correcaminos UAT",
"market_prob": 42.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.38,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"market_prob": 32.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.64,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.64,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Correcaminos UAT",
"market_prob_pct": 42.32,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "CDS Tampico Madero"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Correcaminos UAT\u0027s win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 28.8%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.51,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Correcaminos UAT 1.16 xG vs CDS Tampico Madero 1.44 \u2192 CDS Tampico Madero 41.9%",
"Market: Correcaminos UAT ~32.5% implied",
"Market Drift: CDS Tampico Madero odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CDS Tampico Madero, but the market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.51,
"hero_label": "Correcaminos UAT",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "CDS Tampico Madero odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, CDS Tampico Madero has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Correcaminos UAT than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from CDS Tampico Madero \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Correcaminos UAT than the current fair estimate.",
"However, CDS Tampico Madero has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from CDS Tampico Madero \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Correcaminos UAT more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, CDS Tampico Madero has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.51,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Correcaminos UAT",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Correcaminos UAT higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.51,
"edge_pp": -13.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Correcaminos UAT",
"market_prob_pct": 42.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.12,
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.38,
"edge_pp": 9.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from CDS Tampico Madero \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Correcaminos UAT (32.5%).",
"CDS Tampico Madero odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.1%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CDS Tampico Madero, Market \u2192 Correcaminos UAT, while CDS Tampico Madero odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on CDS Tampico Madero (11.1%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.85",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.58 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 10m",
"pick_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.93,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on CDS Tampico Madero",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from CDS Tampico Madero while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cds-tampico-madero",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"away_team_id": 19905,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19905.webp",
"away_team_name": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"away_team_public_id": "1cXkyHl6m4uwrz",
"away_team_slug": "cds-tampico-madero",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1581433,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Correcaminos UAT",
"home_team_id": 2313,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2313.webp",
"home_team_name": "Correcaminos UAT",
"home_team_public_id": "3v8fWSM5D5BB5N",
"home_team_slug": "correcaminos-uat",
"ht.home_team_slug": "correcaminos-uat",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_id": 263,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/263.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_public_id": "37VzxtGVs2y4fb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 01:00:00",
"public_id": "4UG6tTUKChF6d7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ciudad Victoria",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3869,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2519,
"home": 0.4232
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.3611
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2519,
"home": 0.4232
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2635
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3589,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0484,
"ev": -0.1569,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2519,
"home": 0.4232
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3747
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": 0.0772,
"ev": 0.2261,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.4185
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.1562,
"ev": -0.3515,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.2882
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1655,
"alpha_yes": 0.2276,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0564,
"edge_yes": -0.0564,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.104,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0658,
"ev_yes": -0.1522,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1046,
"implied_no": 0.4036,
"implied_yes": 0.5964,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1655,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4152
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2276,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5937,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5815
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4152,
"p_final_yes": 0.5815,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2194,
"alpha_under": 0.1995,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.075,
"edge_under": 0.075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1073,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0485,
"implied_over": 0.557,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5576,
"implied_under": 0.443,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4424,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1073,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.541
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1995,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4574
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.541,
"p_final_under": 0.4574,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CDS Tampico Madero at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CDS Tampico Madero as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side CDS Tampico Madero \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1581433 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from CDS Tampico Madero, but the model still strongly favours CDS Tampico Madero.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CDS Tampico Madero"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1655,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.4063,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1655,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4152
},
"p_final": 0.4152,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0658,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2276,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5937,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5815
}
},
"edge": 0.0564,
"ev": 0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.4036,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1995,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.4424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1073,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.541
},
"p_final": 0.4574,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0485,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1995,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4574
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.075,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1581433,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.4036,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.4036,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CDS Tampico Madero",
"home": "Correcaminos UAT"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2262,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581433,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T00:59:29.762848+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Correcaminos UAT & CDS Tampico Madero!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga de Expansión MX — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monarcas | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Tapatío | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 9 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piratas | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Durango | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 |
