AI correctly predicted the Sundby win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Sundby Sundby ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundby | 35.6% | 39.2% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| ASA Aarhus | 34.7% | 36.8% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Sundby win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sundby more conservatively (30.0% vs model 35.6%, 5.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sundby win 1–0).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sundby 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · ASA Aarhus 34.7%
- xG · Sundby 1.31 — ASA Aarhus 1.29
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sundby 2.30 · Draw 3.74 · ASA Aarhus 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Sundby 39.2% · Draw 24.1% · ASA Aarhus 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Sundby 2.30 · Draw 3.74 · ASA Aarhus 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Sundby 39.2% · Draw 24.1% · ASA Aarhus 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sundby win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 3 Denmark — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Vanløse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Holstebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Næsby BK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Frem | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Sundby | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Ishøj | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 3 | Brønshøj | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frem | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Holstebro | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Vanløse | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | Næsby BK | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | ASA Aarhus | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Sundby | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Ringsted | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 4 |
| 12 | Ishøj | 8 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
