The model missed the final outcome (SV Darmstadt 98 win 2–1).
The model had projected Arminia Bielefeld at 60.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Arminia Bielefeld SV Darmstadt 98 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 15.6% | 31.2% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.3% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 60.4% | 42.5% | +17.9 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Arminia Bielefeld's win probability at 60.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.5%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah SV Darmstadt 98 win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.86) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arminia Bielefeld by 17.9 percentage points (42.5% vs model 60.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 15.6% · Draw 24.1% · Arminia Bielefeld 60.3%
- xG · SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 — Arminia Bielefeld 1.95
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SV Darmstadt 98 3.10 · Draw 3.68 · Arminia Bielefeld 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 31.2% · Draw 26.3% · Arminia Bielefeld 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SV Darmstadt 98 3.10 · Draw 3.68 · Arminia Bielefeld 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 31.2% · Draw 26.3% · Arminia Bielefeld 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SV Darmstadt 98 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Betting Confidence
43/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
SV Darmstadt 98 win · SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1bfe165f15bd276c177b5936f8cefd37bc740cb3229f637259f56b35f7db5448",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.95,
"away_win_prob": 0.6036,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.474,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.526,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2403,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 1.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.16,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 6.41,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.91,
"home_win_prob": 0.1561,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.545,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.455
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Arminia Bielefeld",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Arminia Bielefeld",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"away_xg": 1.95,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"confidence": 60.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Arminia Bielefeld",
"edge": 0.1785,
"edge_gap": 0.3625,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 60.3,
"draw": 24.1,
"home": 15.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.28,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Arminia Bielefeld Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.36,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 1.66,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 16.4,
"value_pct": 37.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 85.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 59.7,
"no_prob": 47.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.95,
"home_expected": 0.91,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98 or Draw",
"prob": 39.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98 or Arminia Bielefeld",
"prob": 76.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Arminia Bielefeld",
"prob": 84.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Arminia Bielefeld",
"pick_prob": 84.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 60.4,
"draw_pct": 24.0,
"home_pct": 15.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.86,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 54.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.86,
"under_prob": 45.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 37.7,
"implied_prob": 43.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Arminia Bielefeld Win",
"model_prob": 60.4,
"odds": 2.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.46,
"draw": 26.31,
"home": 31.23
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 16:29:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 16:01:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.23,
"gap_pp": -15.61,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 15.62
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.31,
"gap_pp": -2.24,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.07
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.46,
"gap_pp": 17.85,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 60.31
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.79,
"gap_pp": -4.29,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 54.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.21,
"gap_pp": 4.29,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 45.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.1,
"early": 3.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.23,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.31,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
"early": 2.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.46,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.79,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.21,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 28.0,
"edge": 3.5,
"ev": 98.2,
"label": "0-3",
"probability": 7.1
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.1,
"ev": 0.232,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.112,
"model_prob_pct": 11.2,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 7.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.91,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 2.43,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Away Arminia Bielefeld",
"edge": 19.2,
"ev": 46.4,
"probability": 60.3
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0359,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"market_prob": 0.379,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0359,
"ev": 0.0165,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4149
},
"p_final": 0.4149,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1613,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0165,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5199,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1454,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5716
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2087,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.9,
"text": "+20.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.211,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2087,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 47.4,
"sort_key": 10337.83,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.6
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1022,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.2,
"text": "+10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1022,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.2,
"text": "+10.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3751,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"sort_key": 10091.98,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0191,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4085,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5641,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.5915,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
},
"p_final": 0.4276,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0442,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0187,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4276
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1062,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0829,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0829,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 54.5,
"sort_key": 10074.61,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.9,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 42.5,
"market_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"model_prob_pct": 60.4,
"model_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2087,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3751,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 60.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (60.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576172 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1022,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3751,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.04"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.95,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.95,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.95 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2087,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3751,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 60.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (60.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576172 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1022,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3751,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.04"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.04
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 xG vs Arminia Bielefeld 1.95 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 60.4%",
"Market: Arminia Bielefeld ~42.5% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Arminia Bielefeld, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob": 15.61,
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"market_prob": 31.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.28,
"fair_prob": 24.03,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.9,
"fair_prob": 60.36,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob": 42.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.67,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.81,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.81,
"fair_prob": 47.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.36,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 42.46,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Arminia Bielefeld\u0027s win probability at 60.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 42.5%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.9,
"model_prob_pct": 60.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Arminia Bielefeld \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.9 pp).",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 xG vs Arminia Bielefeld 1.95 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 60.4%",
"Market: Arminia Bielefeld ~42.5% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Arminia Bielefeld, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.9,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "SV Darmstadt 98 odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, SV Darmstadt 98 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"note": "Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"However, SV Darmstadt 98 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Arminia Bielefeld more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, SV Darmstadt 98 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 36.3 pp (at 60.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 36.3,
"max_prob_pct": 60.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.9,
"lead": "The model rates Arminia Bielefeld considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.62,
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"market_prob_pct": 31.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.28,
"edge_pp": -2.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.9,
"edge_pp": 17.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.36,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 42.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arminia Bielefeld (42.5%).",
"SV Darmstadt 98 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.1%, 8/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Arminia Bielefeld \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.9 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 83h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on SV Darmstadt 98 (11.1%, 8/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.90",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 83h 51m",
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.1,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "arminia-bielefeld",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"away_team_id": 188,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/188.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"away_team_public_id": "4UCKb5yuGGCT4H",
"away_team_slug": "arminia-bielefeld",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576172,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"home_team_id": 181,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/181.webp",
"home_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"home_team_public_id": "3SeNfZDltfEtbn",
"home_team_slug": "sv-darmstadt-98",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sv-darmstadt-98",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 16:30:00",
"public_id": "3hR3PUskRKR4Ab",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Darmstadt",
"venue_name": "Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3295,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0588,
"ev": 0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4246,
"draw": 0.2631,
"home": 0.3123
},
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2899,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0558,
"implied_prob": 0.2631,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4246,
"draw": 0.2631,
"home": 0.3123
},
"model_prob": 0.2407,
"p_final": 0.2566
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2298,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1431,
"implied_prob": 0.3123,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4246,
"draw": 0.2631,
"home": 0.3123
},
"model_prob": 0.1562,
"p_final": 0.2764
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.1645,
"ev": 0.3751,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.6031
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1143,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2407
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.1664,
"ev": -0.5158,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.1562
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3781,
"alpha_yes": 0.5199,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0981,
"edge_yes": -0.0981,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2087,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0165,
"ev_yes": -0.211,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1454,
"implied_no": 0.3759,
"implied_yes": 0.6241,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0359,
"ev": 0.0165,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4149
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5199,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1454,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5716
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4149,
"p_final_yes": 0.5716,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5641,
"alpha_under": 0.4102,
"best_over_odd": 1.64,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.585,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.295,
"edge_over": -0.0467,
"edge_under": 0.0467,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1062,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1041,
"ev_under": 0.0829,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0187,
"implied_over": 0.5917,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5915,
"implied_under": 0.4083,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4085,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5641,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.5915,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4276
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5653,
"p_final_under": 0.4276,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.86,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2087,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3751,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2087,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2087,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3751,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 60.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (60.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576172 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 17.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1022,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3751,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.04"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.526,
"draw_prob": 0.2407,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6031,
"over_prob": 0.545,
"total_xg": 2.86,
"under_prob": 0.455,
"xg_diff": 1.04
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0588,
"ev": 0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0359,
"market_prob": 0.379,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0359,
"ev": 0.0165,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4149
},
"p_final": 0.4149,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0165,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5199,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1454,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5716
}
},
"edge": 0.0981,
"ev": 0.2087,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.4085,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5641,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.5915,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
},
"p_final": 0.4276,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0187,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4276
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4083,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576172,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2087,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6031,
"draw": 0.2407,
"home": 0.1562
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"home": "SV Darmstadt 98"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.098924,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2087,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.474,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1022,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6031,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3751,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576172,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:29:26.202736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk SV Darmstadt 98 & Arminia Bielefeld!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
2. Bundesliga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
