The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Brabrand at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Brabrand Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brabrand | 36.6% | 20.1% | +16.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.2% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Nykøbing FC | 33.8% | 52.6% | -18.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Nykøbing FC's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Nykøbing FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Brabrand; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brabrand by 18.9 percentage points (55.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brabrand 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Nykøbing FC 33.8%
- xG · Brabrand 1.33 — Nykøbing FC 1.27
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brabrand 4.55 · Draw 3.36 · Nykøbing FC 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Brabrand 20.1% · Draw 27.2% · Nykøbing FC 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Brabrand 4.55 · Draw 3.36 · Nykøbing FC 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Brabrand 20.1% · Draw 27.2% · Nykøbing FC 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
1/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Brabrand 1–1 Nykøbing FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 8.3
},
{
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"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Brabrand or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
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"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.62,
"draw": 27.25,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 11:58:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Brabrand",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 12.3,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -25.3,
"text": "-25.3%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1634,
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"edge": 0.0101,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.3935,
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"no": {
"alpha": 0.1634,
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0285,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0285,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+66.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Brabrand",
"sort_key": 5222.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"alert_team": "Brabrand",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.85,
"hero_label": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"market_prob_pct": 20.1,
"market_team": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Brabrand",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brabrand at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brabrand as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brabrand",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brabrand \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +67% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1575802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +67% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0285,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+66.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.85,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"steam_team": "Brabrand",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brabrand at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brabrand as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brabrand",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brabrand \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +67% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1575802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +67% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0285,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+66.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Brabrand 1.33 xG vs Nyk\u00f8bing FC 1.27 \u2192 Brabrand 36.6%",
"Market: Nyk\u00f8bing FC ~20.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Brabrand \u2193 -17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Brabrand, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 16.47,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Brabrand",
"market_prob": 20.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.85,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"market_prob": 52.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"market_prob_pct": 52.62,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Brabrand"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nyk\u00f8bing FC\u0027s win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Brabrand",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Brabrand \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Brabrand 1.33 xG vs Nyk\u00f8bing FC 1.27 \u2192 Brabrand 36.6%",
"Market: Nyk\u00f8bing FC ~20.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Brabrand \u2193 -17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Brabrand, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.85,
"hero_label": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Brabrand odds shortened \u2193 -17.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Brabrand, with odds shortening by 17.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nyk\u00f8bing FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Brabrand \u2014 odds shortened by 17.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Nyk\u00f8bing FC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Brabrand, with odds shortening by 17.8%.",
"Buying interest on Brabrand \u2014 odds shortened by 17.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Nyk\u00f8bing FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Brabrand has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Brabrand."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nyk\u00f8bing FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 16.47,
"edge_pp": 16.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Brabrand",
"market_prob_pct": 20.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.39,
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -18.85,
"edge_pp": -18.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"market_prob_pct": 52.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Brabrand \u2014 odds shortened by 17.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nyk\u00f8bing FC (20.1%).",
"However, Brabrand has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.8%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Brabrand, Market \u2192 Nyk\u00f8bing FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Brabrand.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Brabrand (17.8% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.55",
"4.12",
"3.70"
],
"display": "6.01 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"pick_team": "Brabrand",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.55,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,1.1 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Brabrand \u2193 -17.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Brabrand",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Brabrand \u2193 -17.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Brabrand",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Brabrand",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Brabrand",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nykobing-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"away_team_id": 2064,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2064.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2E6xCDl6IxK8bd",
"away_team_slug": "nykobing-fc",
"country_code": "DK",
"country_display_name": "Denmark",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dk.svg",
"country_id": 44,
"country_name": "Denmark",
"fixture_id": 1575802,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "Brabrand",
"home_team_id": 2071,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2071.webp",
"home_team_name": "Brabrand",
"home_team_public_id": "5YmAIqhmG68uIm",
"home_team_slug": "brabrand",
"ht.home_team_slug": "brabrand",
"league_country": "Denmark",
"league_country_display": "Denmark",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 2 Denmark",
"league_id": 122,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/122.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 2 Denmark",
"league_public_id": "33l1w2IW44eeLB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "0rXodb4BpE3Cpp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4302,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0812,
"ev": -0.2256,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5262,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.2012
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4451
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5262,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.2012
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2794
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 4.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": 0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5262,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.2012
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.226
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.2372,
"ev": -0.4127,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.55,
"edge": 0.1462,
"ev": 0.6652,
"implied_prob": 0.2198,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1634,
"alpha_yes": 0.2247,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0592,
"edge_yes": -0.0592,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.108,
"implied_no": 0.3958,
"implied_yes": 0.6042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1634,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4035
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.6065,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5927
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4035,
"p_final_yes": 0.5927,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2019,
"alpha_under": 0.1469,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.295,
"edge_over": -0.1258,
"edge_under": 0.1258,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1301,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0515,
"implied_over": 0.6078,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6047,
"implied_under": 0.3922,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3953,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.58
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4133
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.58,
"p_final_under": 0.4133,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6652,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brabrand at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brabrand as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brabrand",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brabrand \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +67% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1575802 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +67% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Brabrand), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0285,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+66.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": 0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Brabrand"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1634,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.3935,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1634,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4035
},
"p_final": 0.4035,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.6065,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5927
}
},
"edge": 0.0592,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.295,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.3953,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.58
},
"p_final": 0.4133,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0515,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.295,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4133
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1258,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575802,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3958,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nyk\u00f8bing FC",
"home": "Brabrand"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0285,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2012,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+66.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575802,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:58:03.282917+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Brabrand & Nykøbing FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 Denmark — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykøbing FC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | VSK Århus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Roskilde | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Naestved BK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | B 93 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | HIK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 | Brabrand | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | FA 2000 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykøbing FC | 9 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 21 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 9 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Middelfart | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | VSK Århus | 9 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | B 93 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Naestved BK | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | FA 2000 | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
| 11 | HIK | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
