The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Fremad Amager at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Fremad Amager Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremad Amager | 36.6% | 28.3% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Roskilde | 33.8% | 44.0% | -10.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Roskilde's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Roskilde than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Fremad Amager; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fremad Amager by 10.3 percentage points (46.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fremad Amager 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Roskilde 33.8%
- xG · Fremad Amager 1.33 — Roskilde 1.27
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fremad Amager 3.24 · Draw 3.31 · Roskilde 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Fremad Amager 28.3% · Draw 27.7% · Roskilde 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fremad Amager 3.24 · Draw 3.31 · Roskilde 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Fremad Amager 28.3% · Draw 27.7% · Roskilde 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 Denmark — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykøbing FC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | VSK Århus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Roskilde | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Naestved BK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | B 93 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | HIK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 | Brabrand | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | FA 2000 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykøbing FC | 9 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 21 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 9 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Middelfart | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | VSK Århus | 9 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | B 93 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Naestved BK | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | FA 2000 | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
| 11 | HIK | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
