The model missed the final outcome (LASK win 2–3).
The model had projected First Vienna W at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 First Vienna W LASK ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna W | 40.9% | 51.5% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.8% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| LASK | 29.7% | 24.6% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates First Vienna W's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah LASK win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about First Vienna W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on First Vienna W by 10.6 percentage points (51.5% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · First Vienna W 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · LASK 29.6%
- xG · First Vienna W 1.42 — LASK 1.18
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · First Vienna W 1.72 · Draw 3.72 · LASK 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · First Vienna W 51.5% · Draw 23.8% · LASK 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · First Vienna W 1.72 · Draw 3.72 · LASK 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · First Vienna W 51.5% · Draw 23.8% · LASK 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result LASK win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0566,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "First Vienna W",
"sort_key": 1785.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"alert_team": "LASK",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.63,
"hero_label": "First Vienna W",
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"market_team": "First Vienna W",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "First Vienna W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2955,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.63,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"steam_team": "LASK",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2054,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5813953488372093,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2955,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: First Vienna W 1.42 xG vs LASK 1.18 \u2192 First Vienna W 40.9%",
"Market: First Vienna W ~51.5% implied",
"Market Steam: LASK \u2193 -22.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours First Vienna W, but sharp money moved toward LASK.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.63,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "First Vienna W",
"market_prob": 51.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.57,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "LASK",
"market_prob": 24.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.87,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.87,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "First Vienna W",
"market_prob_pct": 51.54,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "LASK"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates First Vienna W\u0027s win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "First Vienna W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: First Vienna W 1.42 xG vs LASK 1.18 \u2192 First Vienna W 40.9%",
"Market: First Vienna W ~51.5% implied",
"Market Steam: LASK \u2193 -22.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours First Vienna W, but sharp money moved toward LASK.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.63,
"hero_label": "First Vienna W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "LASK odds shortened \u2193 -22.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on LASK, with odds shortening by 22.2%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about First Vienna W than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on LASK \u2014 odds shortened by 22.2%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about First Vienna W than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on LASK, with odds shortening by 22.2%.",
"Buying interest on LASK \u2014 odds shortened by 22.2%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors First Vienna W more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, LASK has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 22.2%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on LASK."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "First Vienna W",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices First Vienna W higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.63,
"edge_pp": -10.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "First Vienna W",
"market_prob_pct": 51.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.57,
"edge_pp": 5.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.83,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.06,
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "LASK",
"market_prob_pct": 24.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on LASK \u2014 odds shortened by 22.2%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers First Vienna W (51.5%).",
"However, LASK has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -22.2%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 First Vienna W, Market \u2192 First Vienna W, Recent sharp money \u2192 LASK.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.14,
"closing_odds": 1.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.14,
"entry_odds": 1.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books synchronized on LASK (22.2% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.29",
"2.88"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 45m",
"pick_team": "LASK",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.6,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,2.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: LASK \u2193 -22.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "LASK",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: LASK \u2193 -22.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward LASK while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "LASK",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "LASK",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_team_name": "LASK",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lask",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "LASK",
"away_team_id": 24440,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24440.webp",
"away_team_name": "LASK",
"away_team_name_canonical": "LASK",
"away_team_public_id": "3RfNacnJJlZWqe",
"away_team_slug": "lask",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1574623,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "First Vienna W",
"home_team_id": 17576,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17576.webp",
"home_team_name": "First Vienna W",
"home_team_public_id": "5ayAMPwXpYp36o",
"home_team_slug": "first-vienna-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "first-vienna-w",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Frauenliga Austria",
"league_id": 484,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/484.webp",
"league_name": "Frauenliga Austria",
"league_public_id": "1ANiqp83WJFkOd",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "25yHecNRxR46r4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2774,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2463,
"draw": 0.2383,
"home": 0.5154
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2602
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.2383,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2463,
"draw": 0.2383,
"home": 0.5154
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2536
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5047,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.2054,
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2463,
"draw": 0.2383,
"home": 0.5154
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.462
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.1718,
"ev": -0.2956,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1055,
"alpha_yes": 0.145,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1087,
"edge_yes": -0.1087,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2393,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.054,
"ev_yes": -0.2318,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"implied_no": 0.3503,
"implied_yes": 0.6497,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1055,
"best_odd": 2.615,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.3503,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3618
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.6497,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6339
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3618,
"p_final_yes": 0.6339,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1929,
"alpha_under": 0.1403,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.46,
"edge_over": -0.1457,
"edge_under": 0.1457,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1289,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0369,
"implied_over": 0.6277,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6292,
"implied_under": 0.3723,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3708,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6008
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1403,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.3708,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3915
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6008,
"p_final_under": 0.3915,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates First Vienna W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies First Vienna W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "First Vienna W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward LASK, but the model still strongly favours First Vienna W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"uplift_away": null,
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}
},
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
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"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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},
"btts": {
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"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574623,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
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}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "LASK",
"home": "First Vienna W"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.6,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574623,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:02:31.150106+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Frauenliga Austria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna W | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg W | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |