The model missed the final outcome (Paradiso win 0–2).
The model had projected Brühl at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Brühl Paradiso ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brühl | 40.9% | 47.4% | -6.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.9% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Paradiso | 29.7% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Brühl's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Paradiso win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Brühl. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Brühl; match finished Paradiso
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brühl by 6.5 percentage points (47.4% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brühl 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Paradiso 29.6%
- xG · Brühl 1.42 — Paradiso 1.18
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brühl 1.93 · Draw 3.82 · Paradiso 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Brühl 47.4% · Draw 23.9% · Paradiso 28.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Brühl 1.93 · Draw 3.82 · Paradiso 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Brühl 47.4% · Draw 23.9% · Paradiso 28.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Paradiso win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Paradiso win · Brühl 0–2 Paradiso
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1527,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"text": "-15.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0281,
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},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2095,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"sort_key": 1792.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"divergence_pp": 6.5,
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"hero_edge_pp": -6.48,
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"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
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"model_team": "Br\u00fchl",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4556,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +45.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +45.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+45.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1527,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2095,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "0/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.48,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4556,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +45.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +45.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+45.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1527,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2095,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00fchl 1.42 xG vs Paradiso 1.18 \u2192 Br\u00fchl 40.9%",
"Market: Br\u00fchl ~47.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Br\u00fchl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Br\u00fchl",
"market_prob": 47.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.46,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Paradiso",
"market_prob": 28.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.42,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.42,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Br\u00fchl",
"market_prob_pct": 47.39,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Br\u00fchl\u0027s win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Br\u00fchl \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00fchl 1.42 xG vs Paradiso 1.18 \u2192 Br\u00fchl 40.9%",
"Market: Br\u00fchl ~47.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +0.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Br\u00fchl with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.48,
"hero_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +0.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Br\u00fchl. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Br\u00fchl. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Br\u00fchl above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Br\u00fchl",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Br\u00fchl higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.48,
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Br\u00fchl",
"market_prob_pct": 47.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.46,
"edge_pp": 5.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.02,
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Paradiso",
"market_prob_pct": 28.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Br\u00fchl (47.4%).",
"Br\u00fchl \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/7",
"current_odds": 3.82,
"move_display": "\u2191 +0.8%",
"open_odds": 3.79,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "paradiso",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Paradiso",
"away_team_id": 12717,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12717.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paradiso",
"away_team_public_id": "3ciUnMLbsQaXPh",
"away_team_slug": "paradiso",
"country_code": "CH",
"country_display_name": "Switzerland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_id": 149,
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1574354,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Switzerland",
"home_team_display_name": "Br\u00fchl",
"home_team_id": 10587,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10587.webp",
"home_team_name": "Br\u00fchl",
"home_team_public_id": "4gGVvhHJSuAhjo",
"home_team_slug": "bruhl",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bruhl",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_country_display": "Switzerland",
"league_display_name": "1. Liga Promosi",
"league_id": 510,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/510.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Promosi",
"league_public_id": "0toRSZfpf2Yp3y",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "312vWxlWM8eVve",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2956,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.2867,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2867,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4739
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2896
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2755,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.2394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2867,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4739
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5421,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1527,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2867,
"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.4739
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.439
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0321,
"ev": 0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1086,
"ev": -0.2096,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1468,
"alpha_yes": 0.2019,
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.37,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1242,
"edge_yes": -0.1242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2944,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0488,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.131,
"implied_no": 0.3348,
"implied_yes": 0.6652,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1468,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.3362,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.6638,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3542,
"p_final_yes": 0.639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1819,
"alpha_under": 0.1323,
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 2.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.625,
"edge_over": -0.1773,
"edge_under": 0.1773,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.33,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1479,
"ev_under": 0.4556,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0428,
"implied_over": 0.6593,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6587,
"implied_under": 0.3407,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3413,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1819,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.6587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6266
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3647
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6266,
"p_final_under": 0.3647,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4556,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4556,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4556,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4556,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Br\u00fchl at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Br\u00fchl as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Br\u00fchl",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +45.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +45.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+45.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Br\u00fchl).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1527,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2095,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1527,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Br\u00fchl"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1468,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.685,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.3362,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1468,
"best_odd": 2.685,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.3362,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.3542
},
"p_final": 0.3542,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0488,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.6638,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.639
}
},
"edge": 0.1242,
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3348,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.3413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1819,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.6587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6266
},
"p_final": 0.3647,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0428,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1323,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3647
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1773,
"ev": 0.4556,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574354,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4556,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3348,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2944,
"implied_prob": 0.3348,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paradiso",
"home": "Br\u00fchl"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.165201,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4556,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1527,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2095,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574354,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:02:13.277352+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
1. Liga Promosi — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Cham | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Bulle | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Paradiso | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | YF Juventus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Basel II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Brühl | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Young Boys II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Breitenrain | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 | Paradiso | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 | Bulle | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Young Boys II | 9 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | Basel II | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 | Lugano II | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Cham | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | YF Juventus | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Luzern II | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Brühl | 9 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Bavois | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Breitenrain | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
