The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Deportivo de La Coruña W Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 36.1% | 44.2% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.8% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Espanyol Wanita | 34.2% | 25.9% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Espanyol Wanita's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol Wanita.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo de La Coruña W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo de La Coruña W by 8.3 percentage points (27.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Espanyol Wanita 34.2%
- xG · Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.32 — Espanyol Wanita 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.07 · Draw 3.07 · Espanyol Wanita 3.53
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 44.2% · Draw 29.8% · Espanyol Wanita 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.07 · Draw 3.07 · Espanyol Wanita 3.53
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 44.2% · Draw 29.8% · Espanyol Wanita 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
58/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Deportivo de La Coruña W 1–1 Espanyol Wanita
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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}
},
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"scores": [
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{
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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},
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{
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},
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{
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},
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},
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"text": "+13.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1327,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10119.43,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1509,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.1,
"text": "-15.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0074,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"sort_key": 1798.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"alert_team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.3,
"hero_label": "Espanyol Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"market_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573594 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1509,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.3,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"steam_team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573594 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1509,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 1.32 xG vs Espanyol Wanita 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W ~44.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Espanyol Wanita odds \u2191 +9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.12,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob": 44.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.18,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.3,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Espanyol Wanita",
"market_prob": 25.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.2,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.2,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Espanyol Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 25.94,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Espanyol Wanita"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Espanyol Wanita\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 1.32 xG vs Espanyol Wanita 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W ~44.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Espanyol Wanita odds \u2191 +9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.3,
"hero_label": "Espanyol Wanita",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Espanyol Wanita odds lengthened \u2191 +9.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol Wanita.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Espanyol Wanita.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol Wanita.",
"Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Espanyol Wanita."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Espanyol Wanita.",
"Recent line movement on Espanyol Wanita (\u2191 +9.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Espanyol Wanita",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.3,
"lead": "The model rates Espanyol Wanita considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.12,
"edge_pp": -8.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"market_prob_pct": 44.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.18,
"edge_pp": -0.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.83,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.3,
"edge_pp": 8.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Espanyol Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 25.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Espanyol Wanita.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W (44.2%).",
"Espanyol Wanita odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.4%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.33,
"closing_odds": 3.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.33,
"entry_odds": 3.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Espanyol Wanita (9.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.53",
"3.37",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.59 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 44m",
"pick_team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.59"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.53,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Espanyol Wanita",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Espanyol Wanita",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "espanyol-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Espanyol Wanita",
"away_team_id": 1919,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1919.webp",
"away_team_name": "Espanyol Wanita",
"away_team_public_id": "4b62m6ojZNq85a",
"away_team_slug": "espanyol-w",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1573594,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"home_team_id": 6376,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6376.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"home_team_public_id": "5hwlthHr4i3Aqf",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-de-la-coruna-w",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_id": 142,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/142.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_public_id": "3UVWpFHIZoilN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4YZ2dcqL16XeUK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Riazor"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2627,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.4423
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2812
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2993,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0005,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.2983,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.4423
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2978
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.395,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.4423
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4102
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0591,
"ev": 0.2086,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.1222,
"ev": -0.2529,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2173,
"alpha_yes": 0.1976,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.082,
"edge_yes": 0.082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.121,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0596,
"implied_no": 0.537,
"implied_yes": 0.463,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.5363,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5186
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4798
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5186,
"p_final_yes": 0.4798,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1589,
"alpha_under": 0.2185,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.265,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.535,
"edge_over": 0.0775,
"edge_under": -0.0775,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.057,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1112,
"implied_over": 0.4045,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4039,
"implied_under": 0.5955,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5961,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1589,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2185,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5961,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.579
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4164,
"p_final_under": 0.579,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2086,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1573594 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1509,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.4637,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.5363,
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"p_final": 0.5186
},
"p_final": 0.4798,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0596,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
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}
},
"edge": 0.082,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1589,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0124,
"market_prob": 0.4039,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.057,
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},
"p_final": 0.4164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5961,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0775,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4045,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1573594,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1445,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4045,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4045,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Espanyol Wanita",
"home": "Deportivo de La Coru\u00f1a W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1509,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4423,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1573594,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:01:01.973686+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Femenina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Wanita | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Wanita | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar Wanita | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid Wanita | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla Wanita | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol Wanita | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad Wanita | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granadilla Tenerife Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Wanita | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol Wanita | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club Wanita | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid Wanita | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad Wanita | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla Wanita | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar Wanita | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granadilla Tenerife Wanita | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
