AI correctly predicted the Real Madrid W win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Real Madrid W Real Madrid W ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid W | 48.3% | 87.0% | -38.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 8.4% | +19.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Valencia W | 23.3% | 4.6% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Real Madrid W's win probability at 87.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 38.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Real Madrid W win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Real Madrid W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Real Madrid W higher (87.0% vs model 48.3%, 38.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Real Madrid W win 3–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Madrid W 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Valencia W 23.3%
- xG · Real Madrid W 1.57 — Valencia W 1.03
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid W 1.07 · Draw 11.03 · Valencia W 20.35
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid W 87.0% · Draw 8.4% · Valencia W 4.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid W 1.07 · Draw 11.03 · Valencia W 20.35
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid W 87.0% · Draw 8.4% · Valencia W 4.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Madrid W win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (39 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Femenina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Wanita | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Wanita | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar Wanita | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid Wanita | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla Wanita | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol Wanita | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad Wanita | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granadilla Tenerife Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona Wanita | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol Wanita | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club Wanita | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid Wanita | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad Wanita | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla Wanita | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar Wanita | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granadilla Tenerife Wanita | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
