The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Sanluqueño at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Sanluqueño Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Sanluqueño; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Sanluqueño 1.32 — Mijas Las Lagunas 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sanluqueño 2–2 Mijas Las Lagunas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a8dc2c0ce3a4c9c0e94114755fa9d914adca8a7efd40938c377a212ffa09278d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sanluque\u00f1o or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sanluque\u00f1o"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0692,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sanluque\u00f1o Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.32,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -10.8,
"value_pct": -23.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sanluque\u00f1o or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sanluque\u00f1o or Mijas Las Lagunas",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mijas Las Lagunas",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o or Mijas Las Lagunas",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.2,
"implied_prob": 29.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Mijas Las Lagunas Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.34
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.43,
"draw": 29.55,
"home": 43.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 10:00:50",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 09:31:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.01,
"gap_pp": -6.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.55,
"gap_pp": 0.11,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.43,
"gap_pp": 6.81,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.09,
"gap_pp": 4.11,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.91,
"gap_pp": -4.11,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.1,
"early": 3.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.55,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.34,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.43,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.09,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.91,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.05,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.6,
"market_prob": 0.1316,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"p_final": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0264,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0778,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5428
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0728,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0267,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5221.36,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0097,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4917
},
"p_final": 0.5083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5083
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0083,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5206.64,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1432,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.3,
"text": "-14.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0225,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"sort_key": 1794.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"alert_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.9,
"hero_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanluque\u00f1o at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanluque\u00f1o as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanluque\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572989 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1432,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.9,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"steam_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanluque\u00f1o at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanluque\u00f1o as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanluque\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572989 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1432,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sanluque\u00f1o 1.32 xG vs Mijas Las Lagunas 1.28 \u2192 Sanluque\u00f1o 36.1%",
"Market: Sanluque\u00f1o ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Mijas Las Lagunas \u2193 -23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sanluque\u00f1o, but sharp money moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"market_prob": 43.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.81,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"market_prob": 27.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.53,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.53,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 43.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mijas Las Lagunas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sanluque\u00f1o\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sanluque\u00f1o 1.32 xG vs Mijas Las Lagunas 1.28 \u2192 Sanluque\u00f1o 36.1%",
"Market: Sanluque\u00f1o ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Mijas Las Lagunas \u2193 -23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sanluque\u00f1o, but sharp money moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.9,
"hero_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mijas Las Lagunas odds shortened \u2193 -23.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Mijas Las Lagunas, with odds shortening by 23.8%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sanluque\u00f1o. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Mijas Las Lagunas \u2014 odds shortened by 23.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sanluque\u00f1o. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Mijas Las Lagunas, with odds shortening by 23.8%.",
"Buying interest on Mijas Las Lagunas \u2014 odds shortened by 23.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sanluque\u00f1o above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Mijas Las Lagunas has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 23.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Mijas Las Lagunas."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sanluque\u00f1o higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.9,
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 43.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.1,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.81,
"edge_pp": 6.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"market_prob_pct": 27.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Mijas Las Lagunas \u2014 odds shortened by 23.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sanluque\u00f1o (43.0%).",
"However, Mijas Las Lagunas has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -23.8%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sanluque\u00f1o, Market \u2192 Sanluque\u00f1o, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mijas Las Lagunas.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Mijas Las Lagunas (23.8% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.70",
"3.20"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
3.34,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Mijas Las Lagunas \u2193 -23.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Mijas Las Lagunas \u2193 -23.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -23.8%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_team_name": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mijas-las-lagunas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"away_team_id": 22569,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22569.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"away_team_public_id": "1GD9FLBxXbOqNJ",
"away_team_slug": "mijas-las-lagunas",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572989,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"home_team_id": 9601,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9601.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"home_team_public_id": "1WOjHmVzOJDPxJ",
"home_team_slug": "sanluqueno",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sanluqueno",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 10:00:00",
"public_id": "3WQ9Y4pUhzdWtI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio El Palmar"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2694,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.2743,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2743,
"draw": 0.2955,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2926
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2995,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.2955,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2743,
"draw": 0.2955,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4033,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2743,
"draw": 0.2955,
"home": 0.4301
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4022
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.043,
"ev": 0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.0803,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1085,
"ev": -0.2312,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2093,
"alpha_yes": 0.2093,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0453,
"edge_yes": 0.0453,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"implied_no": 0.5003,
"implied_yes": 0.4997,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4917
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5083
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4917,
"p_final_yes": 0.5083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2141,
"alpha_under": 0.2355,
"best_over_odd": 2.13,
"best_under_odd": 1.79,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0315,
"edge_under": -0.0315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0778,
"ev_under": -0.0728,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1044,
"implied_over": 0.4505,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4496,
"implied_under": 0.5495,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5504,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5428
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4565,
"p_final_under": 0.5428,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1436,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1436,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sanluque\u00f1o at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sanluque\u00f1o as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sanluque\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sanluque\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572989 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mijas Las Lagunas, but the model still strongly favours Sanluque\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1432,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0267,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sanluque\u00f1o"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0097,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4917
},
"p_final": 0.5083,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5083
}
},
"edge": 0.0453,
"ev": 0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.4997,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.4496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4565
},
"p_final": 0.4565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0778,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5504,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5428
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572989,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0267,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mijas Las Lagunas",
"home": "Sanluque\u00f1o"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1432,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572989,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T10:00:52.235041+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Sanluqueño & Mijas Las Lagunas!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Kumpulan 4 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Don Benito | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sevilla Atlético | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Badajoz | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Estepona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Xerez | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Central | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Puente Genil | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Las Palmas II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Tamaraceite | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Real Betis II | 6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Sevilla Atlético | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Don Benito | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Estepona | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Sanluqueño | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Badajoz | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Linares Deportivo | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Marbella | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Xerez | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Antoniano | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Las Palmas II | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 4 |
