The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Puente Genil at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Puente Genil Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puente Genil | 35.2% | 33.7% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.5% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Marbella | 35.2% | 33.8% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Puente Genil 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Marbella 35.2%
- xG · Puente Genil 1.30 — Marbella 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Puente Genil 2.72 · Draw 2.82 · Marbella 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Puente Genil 33.7% · Draw 32.5% · Marbella 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Puente Genil 2.72 · Draw 2.82 · Marbella 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Puente Genil 33.7% · Draw 32.5% · Marbella 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
29/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Puente Genil 0–0 Marbella
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
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"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0658,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 1783.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"alert_team": "Marbella",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"market_team": "Marbella",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Puente Genil",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.85,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"steam_team": "Marbella",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puente Genil 1.30 xG vs Marbella 1.30 \u2192 Puente Genil 35.2%",
"Market: Marbella ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Marbella odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puente Genil with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Puente Genil",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.36,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Marbella",
"market_prob": 33.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Marbella"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Puente Genil",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Puente Genil \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puente Genil 1.30 xG vs Marbella 1.30 \u2192 Puente Genil 35.2%",
"Market: Marbella ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Marbella odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puente Genil with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Marbella odds lengthened \u2191 +18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Marbella has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Marbella has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Marbella has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.48,
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Puente Genil",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.85,
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.36,
"edge_pp": 1.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Marbella",
"market_prob_pct": 33.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Marbella \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Marbella (33.7%).",
"However, Marbella has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.2%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Puente Genil, Market \u2192 Marbella, while Marbella odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"closing_odds": 2.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.46,
"entry_odds": 2.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Marbella (18.2%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.71",
"2.46",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.77 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.71,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Marbella",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Marbella",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Marbella",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Marbella",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "marbella",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Marbella",
"away_team_id": 5267,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5267.webp",
"away_team_name": "Marbella",
"away_team_public_id": "0Lp9cnFb4G89k7",
"away_team_slug": "marbella",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572977,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Puente Genil",
"home_team_id": 9764,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9764.webp",
"home_team_name": "Puente Genil",
"home_team_public_id": "3btXKfCectZDKr",
"home_team_slug": "puente-genil",
"ht.home_team_slug": "puente-genil",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4mrowS72KmSRdD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4408,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.3381,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3442
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3127
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3381,
"draw": 0.325,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3434
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0582,
"ev": -0.164,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2152,
"alpha_yes": 0.2367,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.81,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0317,
"edge_yes": 0.0317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1088,
"ev_yes": -0.0135,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0851,
"implied_no": 0.4867,
"implied_yes": 0.5133,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.4841,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4778
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.5159,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4778,
"p_final_yes": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2133,
"alpha_under": 0.2347,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0335,
"edge_under": -0.0335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_over": 0.4485,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5515,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4548,
"p_final_under": 0.5445,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puente Genil at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puente Genil as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puente Genil",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puente Genil).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Puente Genil"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.5159,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.4841,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4778
},
"p_final": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0851,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2367,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.5159,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.5133,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2133,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4548
},
"p_final": 0.4548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5445
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4485,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572977,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Marbella",
"home": "Puente Genil"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0431,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572977,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:00:43.764038+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Kumpulan 4 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Badajoz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Marbella | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Estepona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Puente Genil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Antoniano | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Marbella | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Puente Genil | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Badajoz | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Atlético Central | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Estepona | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Antoniano | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
