AI correctly predicted the Atlético Central win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Atlético Central Atlético Central ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Central | 36.1% | 30.1% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.4% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Sevilla Atlético | 34.2% | 38.5% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Atlético Central's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.1%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Atlético Central win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atlético Central.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atlético Central more conservatively (30.1% vs model 36.1%, 6.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atlético Central win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlético Central 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sevilla Atlético 34.2%
- xG · Atlético Central 1.32 — Sevilla Atlético 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Central 3.04 · Draw 2.92 · Sevilla Atlético 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Central 30.1% · Draw 31.4% · Sevilla Atlético 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Central 3.04 · Draw 2.92 · Sevilla Atlético 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Central 30.1% · Draw 31.4% · Sevilla Atlético 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlético Central win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlético Central win · Atlético Central 2–0 Sevilla Atlético
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0344,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"sort_key": 1791.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"alert_team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
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"model_strong": false,
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0972,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Central at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Central as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0344,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0971,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.98,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"steam_team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0972,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Central at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Central as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0344,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0971,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Central 1.32 xG vs Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico 1.28 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Central 36.1%",
"Market: Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico ~30.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico odds \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atl\u00e9tico Central with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.98,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"market_prob": 30.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.72,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.25,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"market_prob": 38.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.22,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"market_prob_pct": 30.13,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Central\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.1%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Atl\u00e9tico Central \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Central 1.32 xG vs Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico 1.28 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Central 36.1%",
"Market: Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico ~30.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico odds \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atl\u00e9tico Central with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.98,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico odds lengthened \u2191 +7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Central.",
"note": "Drift away from Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Central.",
"However, Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Central.",
"At the same time, Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.0,
"lead": "The model rates Atl\u00e9tico Central considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.98,
"edge_pp": 5.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"market_prob_pct": 30.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.72,
"edge_pp": -1.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.37,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.25,
"edge_pp": -4.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"market_prob_pct": 38.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico (30.1%).",
"Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.5%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Central, Market \u2192 Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico, while Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.89,
"closing_odds": 3.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.89,
"entry_odds": 3.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico (7.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.19",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.49 \u2192 1.99 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 30m",
"pick_team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.38,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.9",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sevilla-atletico",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"away_team_id": 730,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/730.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"away_team_public_id": "0Wb0oflJIV5gDy",
"away_team_slug": "sevilla-atletico",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572976,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"home_team_id": 24723,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24723.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"home_team_public_id": "4fsKnUKSNqeCQd",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-central",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atletico-central",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2hvE80xHUYg2VF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4213,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.3849,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3849,
"draw": 0.3137,
"home": 0.3013
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.367
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4385,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.3137,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3849,
"draw": 0.3137,
"home": 0.3013
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3063
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2732,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3849,
"draw": 0.3137,
"home": 0.3013
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3176
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0778,
"ev": -0.1851,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.228,
"alpha_yes": 0.2072,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.88,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0522,
"edge_yes": 0.0522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1178,
"ev_yes": 0.0246,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0765,
"implied_no": 0.5072,
"implied_yes": 0.4928,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4956
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5033
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4956,
"p_final_yes": 0.5033,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2041,
"alpha_under": 0.2246,
"best_over_odd": 2.26,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.058,
"edge_under": -0.058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0893,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0564,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1059,
"implied_over": 0.424,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4202,
"implied_under": 0.576,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5798,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4328,
"p_final_under": 0.5659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0972,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0893,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0972,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Central at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Central as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atl\u00e9tico Central).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0344,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0971,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Central"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0109,
"market_prob": 0.4924,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4956
},
"p_final": 0.5033,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0765,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5033
}
},
"edge": 0.0522,
"ev": 0.0246,
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.4202,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0564,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5659
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.058,
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572976,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0893,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sevilla Atl\u00e9tico",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Central"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.03013,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0344,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32894736842105265,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0971,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572976,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:59:28.515261+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Kumpulan 4 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Badajoz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Marbella | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Estepona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Puente Genil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Antoniano | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Marbella | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Puente Genil | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Badajoz | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Atlético Central | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Estepona | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Antoniano | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
