The model missed the final outcome (Orihuela win 1–2).
The model had projected Real Murcia II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Real Murcia II Orihuela ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia II | 36.1% | 26.3% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.2% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Orihuela | 34.2% | 44.4% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Orihuela's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Orihuela win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Orihuela than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Real Murcia II; match finished Orihuela
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Real Murcia II by 10.2 percentage points (46.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Murcia II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Orihuela 34.2%
- xG · Real Murcia II 1.32 — Orihuela 1.28
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Murcia II 3.48 · Draw 3.13 · Orihuela 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Real Murcia II 26.3% · Draw 29.2% · Orihuela 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Murcia II 3.48 · Draw 3.13 · Orihuela 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Real Murcia II 26.3% · Draw 29.2% · Orihuela 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orihuela win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Kumpulan 3 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Castellonense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Intercity | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | La Nucía | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Cieza | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Elche II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mallorca II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Valencia II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Alcoyano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Real Murcia II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | UCAM Murcia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Atlético Baleares | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Poblense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Castellonense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Intercity | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | La Nucía | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Cieza | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Elche II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mallorca II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Valencia II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Real Murcia II | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | UCAM Murcia | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Alcoyano | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Atlético Baleares | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Poblense | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
