AI correctly predicted the Espanyol II win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Espanyol II Espanyol II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD Logroñés | 31.5% | 32.7% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 33.7% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Espanyol II | 39.0% | 33.6% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Espanyol II's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Espanyol II win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol II.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Espanyol II more conservatively (33.6% vs model 39.0%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Espanyol II win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SD Logroñés 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Espanyol II 39.0%
- xG · SD Logroñés 1.22 — Espanyol II 1.38
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SD Logroñés 2.80 · Draw 2.72 · Espanyol II 2.73
- Implied 1X2 · SD Logroñés 32.7% · Draw 33.7% · Espanyol II 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SD Logroñés 2.80 · Draw 2.72 · Espanyol II 2.73
- Implied 1X2 · SD Logroñés 32.7% · Draw 33.7% · Espanyol II 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Espanyol II win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Espanyol II win · SD Logroñés 1–2 Espanyol II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"steam_score": null,
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
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],
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"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"model_conflict_detail": null,
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],
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0639,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.4,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Espanyol II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Espanyol II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Espanyol II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0639,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s 1.22 xG vs Espanyol II 1.38 \u2192 Espanyol II 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~33.6% implied",
"Market Steam: SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Espanyol II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.25,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"market_prob": 32.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.16,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Espanyol II",
"market_prob": 33.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.67,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.67,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.92,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.92,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Espanyol II",
"market_prob_pct": 33.57,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Espanyol II\u0027s win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Espanyol II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s 1.22 xG vs Espanyol II 1.38 \u2192 Espanyol II 39.0%",
"Market: Draw ~33.6% implied",
"Market Steam: SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Espanyol II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.4,
"hero_label": "Espanyol II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol II.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol II."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Espanyol II.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Espanyol II",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.4,
"lead": "The model rates Espanyol II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.25,
"edge_pp": -1.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"market_prob_pct": 32.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.16,
"edge_pp": -4.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.4,
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Espanyol II",
"market_prob_pct": 33.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (33.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Espanyol II, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.63,
"closing_odds": 2.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.63,
"entry_odds": 2.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Espanyol II",
"away_team_id": 9590,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9590.webp",
"away_team_name": "Espanyol II",
"away_team_public_id": "07MBEA8vtYtjAd",
"away_team_slug": "espanyol-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572342,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"home_team_id": 9411,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9411.webp",
"home_team_name": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s",
"home_team_public_id": "5HrwAEhHSVeSDR",
"home_team_slug": "sd-logrones",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 2",
"league_id": 876,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/876.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 2",
"league_public_id": "2tgTlG8sHcHVQk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 16:00:00",
"public_id": "1uXmGHmo1vZmkm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Las Gaunas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4136,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3357,
"draw": 0.337,
"home": 0.3273
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.358
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.422,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.337,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3357,
"draw": 0.337,
"home": 0.3273
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3194
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4416,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0055,
"ev": -0.0988,
"implied_prob": 0.3273,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3357,
"draw": 0.337,
"home": 0.3273
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3218
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0722,
"ev": -0.1965,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0422,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1501,
"alpha_yes": 0.1364,
"best_no_odd": 1.69,
"best_yes_odd": 2.03,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0892,
"edge_yes": 0.0892,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2294,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1438,
"ev_yes": 0.1043,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_no": 0.5452,
"implied_yes": 0.4548,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1438,
"implied_prob": 0.5452,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1364,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.467
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5318,
"p_final_yes": 0.467,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1058,
"alpha_under": 0.1455,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
"edge_over": 0.1067,
"edge_under": -0.1067,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0412,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0924,
"implied_over": 0.3753,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3753,
"implied_under": 0.6247,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6247,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3866
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1455,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.6247,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6092
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3866,
"p_final_under": 0.6092,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Espanyol II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Espanyol II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Espanyol II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s, but the model still strongly favours Espanyol II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0639,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Espanyol II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1364,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.4548,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1438,
"implied_prob": 0.5452,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"p_final": 0.467,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0987,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1364,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.467
}
},
"edge": 0.0892,
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.3753,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1058,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3866
},
"p_final": 0.3866,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0412,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1455,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.6247,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6092
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1067,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572342,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Espanyol II",
"home": "SD Logro\u00f1\u00e9s"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060867,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0226,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3357,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0639,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572342,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T16:01:01.989180+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Kumpulan 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Ebro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Espanyol II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Manresa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Utebo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Girona II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Olot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Barbastro | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Calamocha | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Arnedo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Náxara | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 10 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Girona II | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Manresa | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Osasuna II | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Ebro | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Olot | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Utebo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Barbastro | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Calamocha | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Arnedo | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 17 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Náxara | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
