The model missed the final outcome (Szentlőrinc SE win 2–1).
The model had projected BVSC at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 BVSC Szentlőrinc SE ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szentlőrinc SE | 31.5% | 36.1% | -4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.5% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| BVSC | 39.0% | 33.4% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates BVSC's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Szentlőrinc SE win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on BVSC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned BVSC; match finished Szentlőrinc SE
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on BVSC by 5.5 percentage points (33.5% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Szentlőrinc SE 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · BVSC 39.0%
- xG · Szentlőrinc SE 1.22 — BVSC 1.38
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Szentlőrinc SE 2.51 · Draw 2.97 · BVSC 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Szentlőrinc SE 36.1% · Draw 30.5% · BVSC 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Szentlőrinc SE 2.51 · Draw 2.97 · BVSC 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Szentlőrinc SE 36.1% · Draw 30.5% · BVSC 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Szentlőrinc SE win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Szentlőrinc SE win · Szentlőrinc SE 2–1 BVSC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"pick_key": "12",
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"has_data": true,
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]
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},
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.0099,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0099,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1797.525,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0323,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "BVSC",
"sort_key": 1791.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"alert_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.55,
"hero_label": "BVSC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"market_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "BVSC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.056,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates BVSC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies BVSC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "BVSC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0323,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"steam_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.056,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates BVSC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies BVSC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "BVSC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0323,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Szentl\u0151rinc SE 1.22 xG vs BVSC 1.38 \u2192 BVSC 39.0%",
"Market: Szentl\u0151rinc SE ~33.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Szentl\u0151rinc SE odds \u2191 +14.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean BVSC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.6,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"market_prob": 36.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "BVSC",
"market_prob": 33.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.66,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.12,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "BVSC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.42,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates BVSC\u0027s win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "BVSC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "BVSC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Szentl\u0151rinc SE 1.22 xG vs BVSC 1.38 \u2192 BVSC 39.0%",
"Market: Szentl\u0151rinc SE ~33.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Szentl\u0151rinc SE odds \u2191 +14.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean BVSC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.55,
"hero_label": "BVSC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE odds lengthened \u2191 +14.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Szentl\u0151rinc SE has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on BVSC.",
"note": "Drift away from Szentl\u0151rinc SE \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on BVSC.",
"However, Szentl\u0151rinc SE has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Szentl\u0151rinc SE \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on BVSC.",
"At the same time, Szentl\u0151rinc SE has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "BVSC",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates BVSC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.6,
"edge_pp": -4.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"market_prob_pct": 36.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.96,
"edge_pp": -0.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.55,
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "BVSC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Szentl\u0151rinc SE \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Szentl\u0151rinc SE (33.4%).",
"Szentl\u0151rinc SE odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.0%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 BVSC, Market \u2192 Szentl\u0151rinc SE, while Szentl\u0151rinc SE odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.9,
"closing_odds": 2.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.9,
"entry_odds": 2.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Szentl\u0151rinc SE (14.0%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.51",
"2.33",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.52 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 29m",
"pick_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.52"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.51,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bvsc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "BVSC",
"away_team_id": 5071,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5071.webp",
"away_team_name": "BVSC",
"away_team_public_id": "0sEkOpptU03gTY",
"away_team_slug": "bvsc",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1571853,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"home_team_id": 5139,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5139.webp",
"home_team_name": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE",
"home_team_public_id": "3X2OIDmGMu6m5I",
"home_team_slug": "szentlorinc-se",
"ht.home_team_slug": "szentlorinc-se",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "NB II",
"league_id": 272,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/272.webp",
"league_name": "NB II",
"league_public_id": "2qQWLTy3pxCflr",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0KeTVfVTdsGJNE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Szentlorinc SE Sporttelep"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4126,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3342,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3608
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3571
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4436,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3342,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3608
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3007
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.419,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1426,
"implied_prob": 0.3608,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3342,
"draw": 0.305,
"home": 0.3608
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3416
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": 0.056,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": -0.0835,
"ev": -0.2096,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2111,
"alpha_yes": 0.2111,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0412,
"edge_yes": 0.0412,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1109,
"ev_yes": -0.0099,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0794,
"implied_no": 0.4972,
"implied_yes": 0.5028,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.4972,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4885
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.5028,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4885,
"p_final_yes": 0.5115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2076,
"alpha_under": 0.2284,
"best_over_odd": 2.18,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0466,
"edge_under": -0.0466,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0508,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0603,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.102,
"implied_over": 0.4354,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4305,
"implied_under": 0.5646,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5695,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4412,
"p_final_under": 0.5578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.056,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0508,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.056,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates BVSC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies BVSC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "BVSC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (BVSC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0323,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "BVSC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.5028,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.4972,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4885
},
"p_final": 0.5115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0794,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.5028,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5115
}
},
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": -0.0099,
"implied_prob": 0.5028,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.4305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0466,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4354,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571853,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0508,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "BVSC",
"home": "Szentl\u0151rinc SE"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.01714,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4354,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0323,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571853,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T14:02:52.799193+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
NB II — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksár | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Ajka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Karcag SE | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | BVSC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kozármisleny FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Csakvar | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksár | 8 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 20 |
| 2 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Karcag SE | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Ajka | 7 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Csakvar | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kozármisleny FC | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | BVSC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
