The model missed the final outcome (Rilski Sportist win 1–3).
The model had projected Marek at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Marek Rilski Sportist ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek | 37.5% | 44.9% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.8% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Rilski Sportist | 32.9% | 25.3% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Rilski Sportist's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Rilski Sportist win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rilski Sportist.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Marek; match finished Rilski Sportist
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Marek by 7.5 percentage points (30.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Marek 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Rilski Sportist 32.9%
- xG · Marek 1.35 — Rilski Sportist 1.25
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Marek 1.98 · Draw 2.98 · Rilski Sportist 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Marek 44.9% · Draw 29.8% · Rilski Sportist 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Marek 1.98 · Draw 2.98 · Rilski Sportist 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Marek 44.9% · Draw 29.8% · Rilski Sportist 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rilski Sportist win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rilski Sportist win · Marek 1–3 Rilski Sportist
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1888,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.9,
"text": "-18.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.041,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Marek",
"sort_key": 1789.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"alert_team": "Marek",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.54,
"hero_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"market_team": "Marek",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Marek",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1537,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Marek \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571567 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1888,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.54,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"steam_team": "Marek",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1537,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Marek \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571567 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1888,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marek 1.35 xG vs Rilski Sportist 1.25 \u2192 Marek 37.5%",
"Market: Marek ~44.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Marek \u2193 -12.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marek with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.33,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Marek",
"market_prob": 44.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob": 25.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.99,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 25.31,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Marek"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Rilski Sportist\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Marek",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Marek \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marek 1.35 xG vs Rilski Sportist 1.25 \u2192 Marek 37.5%",
"Market: Marek ~44.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Marek \u2193 -12.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marek with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.54,
"hero_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Marek odds shortened \u2193 -12.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Marek, with odds shortening by 12.8%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rilski Sportist.",
"note": "Buying interest on Marek \u2014 odds shortened by 12.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rilski Sportist.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Marek, with odds shortening by 12.8%.",
"Buying interest on Marek \u2014 odds shortened by 12.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Rilski Sportist.",
"At the same time, Marek has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.8%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.5,
"lead": "The model rates Rilski Sportist considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.33,
"edge_pp": -7.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Marek",
"market_prob_pct": 44.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.2,
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.54,
"edge_pp": 7.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 25.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Marek \u2014 odds shortened by 12.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Marek (44.9%).",
"However, Marek has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.8%, 4/8).",
"Marek \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.49,
"closing_odds": 3.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.49,
"entry_odds": 3.51,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 139h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Marek (12.8%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.17",
"1.98"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 1.94 \u2192 2.05",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 139h 9m",
"pick_team": "Marek",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
1.98,
2.05
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.98"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Marek",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Marek",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Marek",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Marek",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rilski-sportist",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"away_team_id": 8547,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8547.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"away_team_public_id": "0EusNMkMZV6RCO",
"away_team_slug": "rilski-sportist",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571567,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Marek",
"home_team_id": 8543,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8543.webp",
"home_team_name": "Marek",
"home_team_public_id": "1KgJsFXMPzOtyH",
"home_team_slug": "marek",
"ht.home_team_slug": "marek",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5o0EEaE9D9kjoN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Dupnitsa",
"venue_name": "Stadion Bonchuk"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.266,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.2531,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2531,
"draw": 0.2981,
"home": 0.4487
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2732
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4483,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.2981,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2531,
"draw": 0.2981,
"home": 0.4487
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.297
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5342,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.039,
"ev": -0.1888,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2531,
"draw": 0.2981,
"home": 0.4487
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4097
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": 0.0438,
"ev": 0.1537,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0399,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.1294,
"ev": -0.2562,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2177,
"alpha_yes": 0.1979,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0799,
"edge_yes": 0.0799,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1145,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0533,
"implied_no": 0.5349,
"implied_yes": 0.4651,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2177,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5353,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5178
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1979,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.4647,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4806
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5178,
"p_final_yes": 0.4806,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1581,
"alpha_under": 0.2174,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.525,
"edge_over": 0.0782,
"edge_under": -0.0782,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0569,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"implied_over": 0.4038,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4008,
"implied_under": 0.5962,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5992,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.4008,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4136
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5992,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5816
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4136,
"p_final_under": 0.5816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1537,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1537,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marek at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marek as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marek",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Marek \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571567 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marek).",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1888,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.039,
"ev": -0.1888,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Marek"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1979,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.4647,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2177,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5353,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5178
},
"p_final": 0.4806,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0533,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1979,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.4647,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4806
}
},
"edge": 0.0799,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.4008,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.4008,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4136
},
"p_final": 0.4136,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0569,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5992,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5816
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0782,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571567,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rilski Sportist",
"home": "Marek"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1888,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2561,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571567,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T14:02:22.250080+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Bulgaria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 11 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Fratria | 11 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Beroe | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montana | 11 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Marek | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 |
