The model missed the final outcome (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 2–4).
The model had projected Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 35.6% | 48.5% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.7% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 34.7% | 26.8% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Etar Veliko Tarnovo by 12.9 percentage points (48.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 34.7%
- xG · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 — Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.29
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 48.5% · Draw 24.7% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 48.5% · Draw 24.7% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
35/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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],
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}
},
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"pick": "No",
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},
"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:29:22",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:02:02",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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]
},
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{
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"text": "-19.5%"
},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
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"alpha": 0.1577,
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"edge": 0.013,
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": 16.0,
"text": "+16.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1603,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10144.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2265,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0421,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"sort_key": 1789.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"alert_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.88,
"hero_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.5,
"market_team": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.88,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"steam_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 xG vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.29 \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 35.6%",
"Market: Etar Veliko Tarnovo ~48.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo, but sharp money moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob": 48.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"market_prob": 26.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.16,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.16,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo\u0027s win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 xG vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.29 \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 35.6%",
"Market: Etar Veliko Tarnovo ~48.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo, but sharp money moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.88,
"hero_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas odds shortened \u2193 -28.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Etar Veliko Tarnovo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 28.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Etar Veliko Tarnovo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.88,
"edge_pp": -12.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.92,
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.95,
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"market_prob_pct": 26.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2014 odds shortened by 28.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Etar Veliko Tarnovo (48.5%).",
"However, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -28.6%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo, Market \u2192 Etar Veliko Tarnovo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (28.6% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.20",
"3.60",
"3.00"
],
"display": "4.60 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 18m",
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
3.32,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas \u2193 -28.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chernomorets-1919-burgas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"away_team_id": 8530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"away_team_public_id": "0tmwBMqlsuINUq",
"away_team_slug": "chernomorets-1919-burgas",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571566,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"home_team_id": 855,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/855.webp",
"home_team_name": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"home_team_public_id": "5U8cyLGSfOiG8c",
"home_team_slug": "etar-veliko-tarnovo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "etar-veliko-tarnovo",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 17:30:00",
"public_id": "2ppGdDMAfmKZ4p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Veliko Tarnovo",
"venue_name": "Ivajlo Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2641,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2675,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2885
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2777,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4836,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.2265,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4852
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4227
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.0461,
"ev": 0.153,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": 0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1905,
"ev": -0.3486,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1577,
"alpha_yes": 0.2168,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0695,
"edge_yes": -0.0695,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0579,
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1158,
"implied_no": 0.3855,
"implied_yes": 0.6145,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6277,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6098
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3853,
"p_final_yes": 0.6098,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1994,
"alpha_under": 0.145,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.51,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.33,
"edge_over": -0.1216,
"edge_under": 0.1216,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1331,
"ev_under": 0.3002,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"implied_over": 0.6036,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6115,
"implied_under": 0.3964,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4072
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5857,
"p_final_under": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Etar Veliko Tarnovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, but the model still strongly favours Etar Veliko Tarnovo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.2265,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3723,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1577,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"p_final": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0579,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.6277,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6098
}
},
"edge": 0.0695,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3885,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1331,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"p_final": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4072
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1216,
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1571566,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3002,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"home": "Etar Veliko Tarnovo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108853,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3002,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571566,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:29:24.050253+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Etar Veliko Tarnovo & Chernomorets 1919 Burgas!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Bulgaria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 11 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Fratria | 11 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Beroe | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montana | 11 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Marek | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 |
