The model missed the final outcome (Nesebar win 2–1).
The model had projected Rilski Sportist at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Rilski Sportist Nesebar ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 31.0% | 39.1% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.9% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Rilski Sportist | 39.5% | 29.0% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Rilski Sportist's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.0%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Nesebar win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rilski Sportist.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Rilski Sportist; match finished Nesebar
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rilski Sportist by 10.4 percentage points (29.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nesebar 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Rilski Sportist 39.5%
- xG · Nesebar 1.21 — Rilski Sportist 1.39
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nesebar 2.28 · Draw 2.79 · Rilski Sportist 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Nesebar 39.1% · Draw 31.9% · Rilski Sportist 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Nesebar 2.28 · Draw 2.79 · Rilski Sportist 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Nesebar 39.1% · Draw 31.9% · Rilski Sportist 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nesebar win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.07
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nesebar win · Nesebar 2–1 Rilski Sportist
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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{
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"over": {
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},
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},
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"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10054.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.028,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.028,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2123,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"sort_key": 1793.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.45,
"hero_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"market_team": "Nesebar",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2125,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rilski Sportist at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rilski Sportist as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rilski Sportist",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rilski Sportist \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571551 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.028,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2123,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2125,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rilski Sportist at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rilski Sportist as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rilski Sportist",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rilski Sportist \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571551 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.028,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2123,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nesebar 1.21 xG vs Rilski Sportist 1.39 \u2192 Rilski Sportist 39.5%",
"Market: Nesebar ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Rilski Sportist odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rilski Sportist, but the market has moved away from Rilski Sportist.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.03,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Nesebar",
"market_prob": 39.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.45,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob": 29.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.56,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.21,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.21,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 29.01,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Rilski Sportist"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Rilski Sportist\u0027s win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.0%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nesebar 1.21 xG vs Rilski Sportist 1.39 \u2192 Rilski Sportist 39.5%",
"Market: Nesebar ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Rilski Sportist odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rilski Sportist, but the market has moved away from Rilski Sportist.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.45,
"hero_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Rilski Sportist odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rilski Sportist.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rilski Sportist.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rilski Sportist.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rilski Sportist."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Rilski Sportist more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Rilski Sportist (\u2191 +11.1%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rilski Sportist",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.4,
"lead": "The model rates Rilski Sportist considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.03,
"edge_pp": -8.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nesebar",
"market_prob_pct": 39.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.41,
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.92,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.45,
"edge_pp": 10.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rilski Sportist",
"market_prob_pct": 29.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Rilski Sportist.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nesebar (29.0%).",
"However, Rilski Sportist has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 4/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rilski Sportist, Market \u2192 Nesebar, while Rilski Sportist odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.57,
"closing_odds": 3.07,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.57,
"entry_odds": 3.07,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Rilski Sportist (11.1%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.04",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.07,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Rilski Sportist while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rilski Sportist",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Rilski Sportist",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"away_team_id": 8547,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8547.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rilski Sportist",
"away_team_public_id": "0EusNMkMZV6RCO",
"away_team_slug": "rilski-sportist",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571551,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Nesebar",
"home_team_id": 1410,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1410.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nesebar",
"home_team_public_id": "1NkElOiVPFnPb0",
"home_team_slug": "nesebar",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4khxsJEAYXwMsu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nesebar",
"venue_name": "Gradski stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2528,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2901,
"draw": 0.3192,
"home": 0.3906
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3166
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4335,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.3192,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2901,
"draw": 0.3192,
"home": 0.3906
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3086
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3958,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0318,
"ev": -0.1818,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2901,
"draw": 0.3192,
"home": 0.3906
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3588
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.0692,
"ev": 0.2125,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0637,
"ev": -0.1776,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.1283,
"ev": -0.2925,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2239,
"alpha_yes": 0.2036,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0621,
"edge_yes": 0.0621,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1774,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.109,
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0594,
"implied_no": 0.5191,
"implied_yes": 0.4809,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2239,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5062
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5062,
"p_final_yes": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2058,
"alpha_under": 0.2264,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.0556,
"edge_under": -0.0556,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.052,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.098,
"implied_over": 0.4264,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4252,
"implied_under": 0.5736,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5748,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2264,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.562
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4369,
"p_final_under": 0.562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2125,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2125,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rilski Sportist at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rilski Sportist as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rilski Sportist",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Rilski Sportist \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571551 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Rilski Sportist, but the model still strongly favours Rilski Sportist.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.028,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2123,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rilski Sportist"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0129,
"market_prob": 0.4796,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2239,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5062
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0594,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0594,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"edge": 0.0621,
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4809,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.4252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4369
},
"p_final": 0.4369,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.052,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2264,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571551,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rilski Sportist",
"home": "Nesebar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031928,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4809,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.028,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2123,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+21.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571551,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:57:40.428736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Nesebar & Rilski Sportist!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Bulgaria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Fratria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Nesebar | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Beroe | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Rilski Sportist | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 13 | Marek | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 10 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 10 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 20 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 10 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 10 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Beroe | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Fratria | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 10 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 10 | Montana | 10 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 | Marek | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 10 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Dobrudzha | 10 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 10 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 10 | 4 | 32 | -28 | 0 |
