AI correctly predicted the Sant Andreu win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Sant Andreu Sant Andreu ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic | 33.8% | 45.6% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.5% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Sant Andreu | 36.6% | 24.9% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Gimnastic's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Sant Andreu win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Gimnastic than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sant Andreu higher (48.4% vs model 36.6%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sant Andreu win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gimnastic 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Sant Andreu 36.6%
- xG · Gimnastic 1.27 — Sant Andreu 1.33
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gimnastic 2.01 · Draw 3.11 · Sant Andreu 3.68
- Implied 1X2 · Gimnastic 45.6% · Draw 29.5% · Sant Andreu 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gimnastic 2.01 · Draw 3.11 · Sant Andreu 3.68
- Implied 1X2 · Gimnastic 45.6% · Draw 29.5% · Sant Andreu 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sant Andreu win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
14/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sant Andreu win · Gimnastic 1–2 Sant Andreu
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Sant Andreu",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.84,
"hero_label": "Gimnastic",
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"market_team": "Gimnastic",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Sant Andreu",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
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"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.84,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Sant Andreu",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimnastic 1.27 xG vs Sant Andreu 1.33 \u2192 Sant Andreu 36.6%",
"Market: Gimnastic ~24.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sant Andreu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Gimnastic",
"market_prob": 45.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.16,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.68,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob": 24.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gimnastic",
"market_prob_pct": 45.61,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sant Andreu"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gimnastic\u0027s win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sant Andreu",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Sant Andreu \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimnastic 1.27 xG vs Sant Andreu 1.33 \u2192 Sant Andreu 36.6%",
"Market: Gimnastic ~24.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sant Andreu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.84,
"hero_label": "Gimnastic",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sant Andreu odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Sant Andreu, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gimnastic than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gimnastic than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Sant Andreu, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gimnastic more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sant Andreu has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Sant Andreu."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.84,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gimnastic",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gimnastic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.84,
"edge_pp": -11.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gimnastic",
"market_prob_pct": 45.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.16,
"edge_pp": 0.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.68,
"edge_pp": 11.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sant Andreu",
"market_prob_pct": 24.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Sant Andreu \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gimnastic (24.9%).",
"However, Sant Andreu has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sant Andreu, Market \u2192 Gimnastic, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sant Andreu.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Sant Andreu (17.1% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.75",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.05 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 4m",
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.68,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sant Andreu \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sant Andreu",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Sant Andreu",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sant Andreu",
"away_team_id": 5277,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5277.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sant Andreu",
"away_team_public_id": "4N1REsICNnjOgW",
"away_team_slug": "sant-andreu",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1571141,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Gimnastic",
"home_team_id": 714,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/714.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gimnastic",
"home_team_public_id": "5K34DwspYsvwvr",
"home_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gimnastic",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 2",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 2",
"league_public_id": "504vZPezCkhYyG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 16:45:00",
"public_id": "1LQ18q7cD4OOHn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tarragona",
"venue_name": "Nou Estadi de Tarragona"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2474,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.278
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.2948,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2953
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.37,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0439,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.4561
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4122
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0942,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.16,
"ev": -0.3215,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2098,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.84,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0427,
"edge_yes": 0.0427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_yes": 0.0028,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0677,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4906,
"p_final_yes": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.2357,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0329,
"edge_under": -0.0329,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_over": 0.4491,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4501,
"implied_under": 0.5509,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.457,
"p_final_under": 0.5424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sant Andreu at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sant Andreu as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sant Andreu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sant Andreu \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571141 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sant Andreu).",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sant Andreu"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.0028,
"implied_prob": 0.5023,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"p_final": 0.457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0678,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571141,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sant Andreu",
"home": "Gimnastic"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571141,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T16:44:24.955724+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División RFEF - Kumpulan 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Gimnastic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Antequera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Águilas CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Huesca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid B | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Gimnastic | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Alcorcón | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Antequera | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Águilas CF | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid II | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 18 | Huesca | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa FC | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 1 |
