AI correctly predicted the Barakaldo win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Barakaldo Barakaldo ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 38.5% | 45.0% | -6.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.6% | -0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Extremadura 1924 | 31.9% | 25.5% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Extremadura 1924's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.5%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Barakaldo win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Barakaldo more conservatively (32.0% vs model 38.5%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Barakaldo win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Barakaldo 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 31.9%
- xG · Barakaldo 1.37 — Extremadura 1924 1.23
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Barakaldo 2.04 · Draw 3.10 · Extremadura 1924 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Barakaldo 45.0% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Barakaldo 2.04 · Draw 3.10 · Extremadura 1924 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Barakaldo 45.0% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Barakaldo win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Barakaldo win · Barakaldo 1–0 Extremadura 1924
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1368,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"text": "-13.7%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0199,
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},
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Barakaldo",
"sort_key": 1795.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.47,
"hero_label": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob_pct": 45.0,
"market_team": "Barakaldo",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Barakaldo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1502,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "10/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9090909090909091,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.47,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Barakaldo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1502,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Barakaldo 1.37 xG vs Extremadura 1924 1.23 \u2192 Barakaldo 38.5%",
"Market: Barakaldo ~45.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Barakaldo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barakaldo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.46,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Barakaldo",
"market_prob": 44.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.01,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.47,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob": 25.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.53,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.0,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.0,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob_pct": 25.47,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Extremadura 1924\u0027s win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.5%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Barakaldo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Barakaldo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Barakaldo 1.37 xG vs Extremadura 1924 1.23 \u2192 Barakaldo 38.5%",
"Market: Barakaldo ~45.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Barakaldo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Barakaldo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.47,
"hero_label": "Extremadura 1924",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Extremadura 1924",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.5,
"lead": "The model rates Extremadura 1924 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.46,
"edge_pp": -6.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Barakaldo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.01,
"edge_pp": -0.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.47,
"edge_pp": 6.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob_pct": 25.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Barakaldo (45.0%).",
"Barakaldo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.78,
"closing_odds": 3.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.78,
"entry_odds": 3.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Barakaldo",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "extremadura-1924",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"away_team_id": 24612,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24612.webp",
"away_team_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"away_team_public_id": "3AXqOxFtaX3kZx",
"away_team_slug": "extremadura-1924",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570738,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Barakaldo",
"home_team_id": 5251,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5251.webp",
"home_team_name": "Barakaldo",
"home_team_public_id": "3lqL3xlh6LsVCA",
"home_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2UTN8cnnm4BZkw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Barakaldo",
"venue_name": "Campo de Lasesarre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2708,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.2547,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2547,
"draw": 0.2958,
"home": 0.4495
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2723
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.2958,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2547,
"draw": 0.2958,
"home": 0.4495
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2958
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4062,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2547,
"draw": 0.2958,
"home": 0.4495
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4231
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0417,
"ev": 0.1502,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1056,
"ev": -0.2154,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2223,
"alpha_yes": 0.2021,
"best_no_odd": 1.76,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.07,
"edge_yes": 0.07,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1974,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1122,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0595,
"implied_no": 0.526,
"implied_yes": 0.474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5088
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4898
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5088,
"p_final_yes": 0.4898,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2058,
"alpha_under": 0.2264,
"best_over_odd": 2.26,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.0553,
"edge_under": -0.0553,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0893,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.052,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.098,
"implied_over": 0.4267,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4252,
"implied_under": 0.5733,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5748,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2264,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.562
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4369,
"p_final_under": 0.562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1502,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0893,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1502,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.11 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.11 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Barakaldo).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Barakaldo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.4761,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5088
},
"p_final": 0.4898,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0595,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4898
}
},
"edge": 0.07,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.4252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4369
},
"p_final": 0.4369,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.052,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2264,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0553,
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570738,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0893,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Extremadura 1924",
"home": "Barakaldo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047872,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1368,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570738,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:11.402983+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División RFEF - Kumpulan 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logroñés | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Athletic Club II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Unión | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Pontevedra | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Lugo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Cacereño | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Ponferradina | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Cultural Leonesa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Barakaldo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | CD Coria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Avilés | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Mérida AD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Zamora | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Racing Ferrol | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Arenas Getxo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Athletic Club II | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Pontevedra | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | CD Coria | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Avilés | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Mérida AD | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Lugo | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 11 | Cacereño | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Extremadura 1924 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Zamora | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Barakaldo | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Arenas Getxo | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 | Cultural Leonesa | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Racing Ferrol | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
