AI correctly predicted the Pyeongtaek Citizen win.
The match finished 7–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Pyeongtaek Citizen Pyeongtaek Citizen ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 7-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pyeongtaek Citizen win 7–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Pyeongtaek Citizen 1.32 — Sejong SA 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 06:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pyeongtaek Citizen win · 7–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Pyeongtaek Citizen win · Pyeongtaek Citizen 7–1 Sejong SA
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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},
"featured": false,
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"no_prob": 45.5,
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.044,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"sort_key": 1789.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.55,
"hero_label": "Sejong SA",
"market_prob_pct": 31.3,
"market_team": "Sejong SA",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pyeongtaek Citizen at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pyeongtaek Citizen as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.55,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pyeongtaek Citizen at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pyeongtaek Citizen as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pyeongtaek Citizen 1.32 xG vs Sejong SA 1.28 \u2192 Pyeongtaek Citizen 36.1%",
"Market: Sejong SA ~31.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Pyeongtaek Citizen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pyeongtaek Citizen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"market_prob": 31.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.55,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Sejong SA",
"market_prob": 42.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.87,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.87,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sejong SA",
"market_prob_pct": 42.79,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pyeongtaek Citizen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sejong SA\u0027s win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pyeongtaek Citizen 1.32 xG vs Sejong SA 1.28 \u2192 Pyeongtaek Citizen 36.1%",
"Market: Sejong SA ~31.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Pyeongtaek Citizen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pyeongtaek Citizen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.55,
"hero_label": "Sejong SA",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Pyeongtaek Citizen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sejong SA. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sejong SA. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Pyeongtaek Citizen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Pyeongtaek Citizen."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sejong SA above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Pyeongtaek Citizen has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Pyeongtaek Citizen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sejong SA",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sejong SA higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.8,
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"market_prob_pct": 31.31,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.75,
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.55,
"edge_pp": -8.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sejong SA",
"market_prob_pct": 42.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sejong SA (31.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pyeongtaek Citizen, Market \u2192 Sejong SA, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.62,
"closing_odds": 2.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.62,
"entry_odds": 2.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sejong-sa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sejong SA",
"away_team_id": 25720,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25720.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sejong SA",
"away_team_public_id": "2vE5piUEvLCXS6",
"away_team_slug": "sejong-sa",
"country_code": "KR",
"country_display_name": "South-Korea",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kr.svg",
"country_id": 144,
"country_name": "South-Korea",
"fixture_id": 1569851,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Korea",
"home_team_display_name": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"home_team_id": 7101,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7101.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"home_team_public_id": "2Q19KWjHzs4SdY",
"home_team_slug": "pyeongtaek-citizen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pyeongtaek-citizen",
"league_country": "South-Korea",
"league_country_display": "South-Korea",
"league_display_name": "K4 Liga Korea Selatan",
"league_id": 1234,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1234.webp",
"league_name": "K4 Liga Korea Selatan",
"league_public_id": "0RrW86jzzem01a",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 06:00:00",
"public_id": "4O2TwObJun2Wuw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3923,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.4279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4279,
"draw": 0.259,
"home": 0.3131
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3944
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.283,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4279,
"draw": 0.259,
"home": 0.3131
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2696
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4177,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4279,
"draw": 0.259,
"home": 0.3131
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3331
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1338,
"ev": -0.281,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1516,
"alpha_yes": 0.2085,
"best_no_odd": 2.66,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0987,
"edge_yes": -0.0987,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2103,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0486,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1207,
"implied_no": 0.3563,
"implied_yes": 0.6437,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.35,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3659
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1207,
"implied_prob": 0.65,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3659,
"p_final_yes": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1969,
"alpha_under": 0.1432,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1324,
"edge_under": 0.1324,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1422,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0574,
"implied_over": 0.6144,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6184,
"implied_under": 0.3856,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3816,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1422,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5916
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4011
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5916,
"p_final_under": 0.4011,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pyeongtaek Citizen at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pyeongtaek Citizen as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pyeongtaek Citizen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Pyeongtaek Citizen, but the model still strongly favours Pyeongtaek Citizen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pyeongtaek Citizen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.35,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1516,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.35,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3659
},
"p_final": 0.3659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.1207,
"implied_prob": 0.65,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"edge": 0.0987,
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3563,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0195,
"market_prob": 0.3816,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1969,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1422,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5916
},
"p_final": 0.4011,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0574,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1432,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4011
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1324,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569851,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3563,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3563,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sejong SA",
"home": "Pyeongtaek Citizen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569851,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T05:59:06.594297+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
K4 Liga Korea Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 7 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Gijang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Sejong SA | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 50 | 16 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 38 | 20 | +18 | 38 |
| 3 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 34 |
| 4 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | Namyangju | 21 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Sejong SA | 20 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | Gijang United | 20 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 11 |
